765
FXUS61 KBTV 151907
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUE TO MODIFY SMOKE PLACEMENT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH DEGRADED AIR QUALITY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK.
2. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY BEING DRY AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
3. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL STORMS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
HAZARDOUS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS AIR QUALITY LEVELS. THOSE
UNUSUALLY SENSITIVE TO SMOKE MAY WISH TO LIMIT EXPOSURE.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SWATHS OF WILDFIRE
SMOKE INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TOMORROW
EVENINGS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SHUNT SMOKE SOUTHWARD GIVING
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT A REPRIEVE FROM SMOKIEST
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SOME SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL DROP THROUGH VERMONT AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT THESE SHOWERS MAY
DRAG SOME SMOKE ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WHICH COULD THEN SETTLE IN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FURTHER DEGRADATION OF
AIR QUALITY.
THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY ALONG A FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS LAST NIGHT'S.
THE ASSOCIATED WAVE IS SHALLOWER AND FARTHER EAST AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. STILL, THOSE OUTDOORS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHTNING PLAN,
ESPECIALLY IF HIKING OR CAMPING.
AFTER A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, RH LIKELY RANGING 20-40% WITH LIGHTER
BREEZES, A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. INITIAL QPF ESTIMATES ARE 0.25-0.75", BUT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK RIDGING WILL COMMAND THE WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY IN TERMS OF TIMING, BUT MOST PROJECT A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THROUGH CANADA DRAGGING A A SLEW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THROUGH OUR AREA AND RETURNING HIGHS TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE'S LESS THAN 30% CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT A GIVEN SITE.
SMOKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN AND PUSHES IT SOUTH. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY (AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
00Z-05Z THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WESTERLY BEING THE MOST COMMON DIRECTION,
EXCEPT AT RUT, WHICH SHOULD SEE ITS TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND. AS WINDS
DECREASE THIS EVENING, ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LLWS AT SLK AND MPV FROM 01Z THROUGH 05Z THURSDAY. PATCHY
HAZE MAY ALSO OCCUR AT SLK AT THE SURFACE AROUND 03Z-06Z THURSDAY AS
WINDS ALOFT ABATE. HAZE AT OTHER SITES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE. SMOKE, LAST NIGHT'S RAIN, AND WINDS ALOFT COULD ALSO AFFECT
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THE MOMENT,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOG, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AT THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS. THURSDAY DURING THE DAY, WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OUT
OF THE WEST 10-20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD
DISCUSSION...STORM/BOYD
AVIATION...STORM
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