322
FXUS61 KBTV 152341
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 728 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
AIR QUALITY ALERTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH DEGRADED AIR QUALITY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK.
2. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY BEING DRY AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
3. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL STORMS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
HAZARDOUS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS AIR QUALITY LEVELS. THOSE
UNUSUALLY SENSITIVE TO SMOKE MAY WISH TO LIMIT EXPOSURE.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SWATHS OF WILDFIRE
SMOKE INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TOMORROW
EVENINGS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SHUNT SMOKE SOUTHWARD GIVING
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT A REPRIEVE FROM SMOKIEST
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SOME SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL DROP THROUGH VERMONT AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT THESE SHOWERS MAY
DRAG SOME SMOKE ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WHICH COULD THEN SETTLE IN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FURTHER DEGRADATION OF
AIR QUALITY.
THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY ALONG A FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS LAST NIGHT'S.
THE ASSOCIATED WAVE IS SHALLOWER AND FARTHER EAST AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. STILL, THOSE OUTDOORS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHTNING PLAN,
ESPECIALLY IF HIKING OR CAMPING.
AFTER A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, RH LIKELY RANGING 20-40% WITH LIGHTER
BREEZES, A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. INITIAL QPF ESTIMATES ARE 0.25-0.75", BUT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK RIDGING WILL COMMAND THE WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY IN TERMS OF TIMING, BUT MOST PROJECT A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THROUGH CANADA DRAGGING A A SLEW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THROUGH OUR AREA AND RETURNING HIGHS TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEASTERN VERMONT BUT LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
REGION, WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY HAZE HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SMOKE, LAST NIGHT'S RAIN, AND WINDS ALOFT
COULD ALSO AFFECT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT
THE MOMENT, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOG, BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH KRUT DEVELOPING
IT'S TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASING
DURING THE TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ011-
019>021.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD/KREMER
DISCUSSION...STORM/BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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