892
FXUS61 KBTV 160645
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THE AIR QUALITY. AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT TODAY.
2. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
3. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL STORMS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WILDFIRES IN WESTERN ONTARIO HAVE BEEN EMITTING
SIGNIFICANT PLUMES OF SMOKE INTO THE AIR AND PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING THEM TOWARD THE REGION. ENOUGH NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THE SMOKE SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
BUT FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL RENTER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PUSH IT BACK TO THE SOUTH FOR THE EVENING
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND IT WILL TRY TO RE-ENTER THE REGION. AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT TODAY WHERE THE SMOKE WILL BE THE WORST, BUT REDUCED AIR
QUALITY IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN THE
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS LEVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND IT WILL
BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST FORCING IS
FARTHER EAST SO THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST
OVER VERMONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, WITH MEAN HREF SBCAPE
VALUES UNDER 500 J WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE STRONG DYNAMICS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 40-60 KT RANGE. THEREFORE, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT STORMS
WILL STRUGGLE WITH THE LOW INSTABILITY AND COULD GET SHEARED OFF.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB 1,000 MB LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A
GENERAL TRACK UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OR CLOSE TO THAT. SHOWERS
LOOK MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT AND CENTER OF THE LOW WOULD BE CLOSER. A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND NOT CONDUCIVE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND SHEAR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE,
PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE DURING THIS
STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY IN TERMS OF TIMING, BUT MOST PROJECT A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THROUGH CANADA DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH OUR
AREA AND RETURNING HIGHS TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION, WITH
SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE, HOWEVER GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY HAZE HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. SMOKE, LAST NIGHT'S RAIN, AND WINDS ALOFT
COULD ALSO AFFECT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT
THE MOMENT, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOG, BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH KRUT DEVELOPING
IT'S TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. DEFINITE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VTZ011-019>021.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
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