245
FXUS61 KBTV 161842
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
242 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 242 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASING FOR
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 242 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS SMOKEY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
3. QUIET TO START THE WEEK, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 242 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING THROUGH VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
AIR. THERE WAS A POINT WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING
SEVERE WIND GUSTS BUT IT APPEARS THE GUST FRONT HAS PUSHED AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. MUCH COOLER AIR IN
THE UPPER 60S IS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION IS SCOURING OUT THE SMOKE WHICH IS QUICKLY
MAKING THE AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE REGION MUCH BETTER. THE HIGH-RES
SMOKE MODELS KEEP THE SMOKE OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. IT'LL BE A NICE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE
UPCOMING RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND PUSH OUR DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS PWAT VALUES SURGING FROM
1.2 INCHES UP TO 1.8 INCHES (SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS UP TO 2") DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SHOWING THE ADVECTION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT HIGHLIGHTED BY GOOD CONVERGENCE SHOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. AS
IT STANDS NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5" WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING IN EXCESS OF
2". IN ADDITION, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LARGELY BE
CONDITIONAL GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES. WET-MICROBURST TYPE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER WITH HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS KEEPING THE HAIL THREAT RATHER LIMITED. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED FLOODING BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING PLEASANT MID-SUMMER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUN/MON WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S). RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 80S. POTENTIAL NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
ONE CONCERN: GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF MID-ATLANTIC 700-500MB
RIDGE NORTHWARD TO EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND PW VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST US, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
IF THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE FORCED TO DECELERATE WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THE 12Z
GFS INDICATES POSITIVE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF AROUND +2SD
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROCESSES TO SOUTH OF GREENLAND,
SUGGESTING A BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THE
GUSTY LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TRAVELING
SOUTHWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO 46KTS WERE OBSERVED AT PBG AND 41KTS AT BTV JUST AFTER 17Z.
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV AND
KRUT THROUGH 19Z BEFORE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR REGION. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NW AT MODERATE SPEEDS, BUT SKIES SHOULD
TREND FEW-SCT050-100 WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE STORMS PASS. SKIES BECOME
CLEAR LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. DEFINITE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ005-
007>011-017>021.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY/BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
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