502
FXUS61 KBTV 030613
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
213 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 213 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
VERMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 213 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY.
2. DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; SHOWERS RETURN ON
THURSDAY.
3. SEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 213 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN AND HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEEN IN A
LULL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SOON POINT THE FIRE HOSE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
RAINFALL THUS FAR, WE ARE BASICALLY STARTING FROM SCRATCH WITH SOILS
THAT CAN ABSORB A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. AN AIRMASS WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.9-2.1 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE) WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
SOON AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES WITH
THE FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 13KFT AND 14KFT. RAINFALL RATES COULD
REACH AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
BUT RAINFALL RATES OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER A HALF INCH PER
HOUR. STILL, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES EXIST ALBEIT ON THE VERY LOW
SIDE BASED ON HOW THINGS HAVE PLAYED OUT THUS FAR.
THIS AFTERNOON IS A BIT OF A WILD CARD AS WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VERMONT.
THIS POTENTIAL IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND IS DEPENDENT ON US BEING ABLE
TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND (ABOUT TO
COME THROUGH NOW) AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERALLY BE MOIST ADIABATIC AS A RESULT OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES BUT ANY SURFACE HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT COULD MIX DOWN
SOME 40-50 KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
FIGURED TO BE WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DISTINCT LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. BASICALLY, IT'LL BE A MESSY DAY WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE
HAZARDS SO IT'LL BE A GOOD DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AFTER SUNSET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND BRING SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BUILDING
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL DISPLACE THE BERMUDA HIGH A BIT TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL OPEN UP THE STREAM OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE,
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MOISTURE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
TO THE REGION, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING OVERHEAD HELPING
TO DRIVE SHOWER CHANCES. AS USUAL IN THIS TIME FRAME, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TO THE OVERALL EXTENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AT THIS POINT. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY,
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY HOWEVER AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO LIMIT ANY FLOOD THREAT BUT TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME LOOK TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND, WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY MAKING IT FEEL A
LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT TERMINALS,
WITH ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS MVFR AROUND 09Z OR SO FOR MOST TERMINALS,
WITH SOME IFR POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY AT KMPV OR ANY TERMINALS WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERHEAD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WANE TOWARDS 18Z AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERNS TO AVIATORS DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF LLWS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHERLY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SHIFTING TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH 30 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...KREMER/CLAY
AVIATION...KREMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page