620
FXUS61 KBTV 042342
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 234 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 234 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1. DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING
APPROACHING THE REGION.
2. BERMUDA HIGH SET UP WILL KEEP OUR REGION WARM AND WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 234 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND DRY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A FEW MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEK COULD SEE SOME LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TOMORROW WILL BE EQUALLY AS PLEASANT AS TODAY,
THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. OUR
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING
FOR BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE MID TO LOW TO MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AROUND 60. IN THE DECOUPLED
VALLEYS TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE.
OUR CALM PATTERN WILL ERODE BY THURSDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR CALM WEATHER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH WITH THE RETURN OF TROUGHING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 AS A RESULT. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY REAL
DEFINED BOUNDARY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT SHORTWAVES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BRING ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOTH AFTERNOONS. CAMS DENOTE TERRAIN
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000-1500J/KG WITH AROUND 20-30 KNOTS OF
SHEAR. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SHOULD INGREDIENTS ALIGN
THURSDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS, PRIMARILY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, GIVEN GOOD INSTABILITY. WEAKER SHEAR
PROFILES DO LEND SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS
IN ADDITION TO WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY FRIDAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40KNOTS WITH
SIMILAR INSTABILITY LEVELS, EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL. AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
BETTER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANY STORMS WILL WANE
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EVENINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF OUR FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN WARM TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. CURRENT MODEL PREDICTIONS ARE FOR
SATURDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, AND SUNDAY TO BE THE
WARMEST. TOUGH TO TIME FINE SCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. BUT, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MORE DAYS THAN NOT. LOOKING FURTHER OUT WE COULD
HAVE A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG
AT SLK/MPV, WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. KEPT FOG MAINLY MVFR 08-12Z SINCE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
REACH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE NARROW WINDOW
SURROUNDING TONIGHT'S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME SOUTHERLIES TOMORROW AFTER 14Z LESS
THAN 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SCATTERED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. ISOLATED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. NUMEROUS SHRA, SCATTERED TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/NEILES
AVIATION...BOYD
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