215
FXUS61 KBTV 051750
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 210 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
AND PRESENT WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
2. BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY OVER THE NEW WEEK
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WITH ZONAL FLOW
BRINGING SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES TO THE REGION. WITH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE ANY REAL DEFINED BOUNDARY TO HELP DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY, THE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
DRIVE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IF INGREDIENTS
ALIGN, THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS, BUT GENERALLY MORE GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARDS THE
EVENINGS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70
DEGREES, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP WARM, MOIST FLOW PROGRESSING INTO THE
REGION WHILE VARIOUS SYSTEMS TRAVEL WEST-TO-EAST IN QUICK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A MORE APPRECIABLE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARDS ON
TUESDAY, AND THAT WILL BREAK DOWN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND SHUNT THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THERE'S A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THERE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY, BUT THE TIMING OF THIS STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY THAT THESE PERIODIC 700MB TROUGHS PUSH
EAST. IF THEY ARE TIMED DURING PEAK HEATING, THE WARM, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SUGGESTS THE INGREDIENTS
COULD BRIEFLY MATERIALIZE. SOME OF THE EXPERIMENTAL MACHINE LEARNING
ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME LOW END PROBABILITIES, BUT A GREATER FOCUS
SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT, BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. AFTER
TUESDAY, WE'LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SYSTEMS. SO SHOWERS COULD REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MINIMIZE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, WE'RE
LOOKING AT LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLK BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS. A CHANCE OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
MPV, BUT GIVEN ONLY SHORT DURATION LAST NIGHT AND ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY WEATHER, THINK LAMP (LOCAL AVIATION MOS PROGRAM) GUIDANCE
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON FOG; THE RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 SM (PEAKING NEAR 30% AT 10Z) ARE
REASONABLE. DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST (SOUTHEASTERLY AT PBG) DURING THE
DAY, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. ISOLATED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. SCATTERED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KREMER
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/KREMER
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page