658
FXUS61 KBTV 051925
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THURSDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
3. FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID PERIOD, DRIER AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY
LEADS TO DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR OUR REGION. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S, LEADING TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. NOT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PRESENT, BUT HIGHER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH TO
THE WEST WILL HELP SOME STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. TIMING FOR STORMS ENTERING OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES
WILL BE AROUND 1 PM, WITH STORMS EXITING VERMONT BY 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEADING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK, WARM AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WITH
ZONAL FLOW BRINGING SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES TO THE REGION.
WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
NOT BE A DEFINED BOUNDARY TO HELP DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY, THOUGH THE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
DRIVE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IF INGREDIENTS
ALIGN, THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS, BUT GENERALLY MORE GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARDS THE
EVENINGS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES,
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT APPEARS THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME SUPPRESSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS
SUCH, MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LESS HUMIDITY THAN WHAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL, THE AIR MASS WILL NO LONGER BE MUGGY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SOMETIME IN THE LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, A COLD FRONT WILL
ZIP EASTWARD AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
DAYTIME ON TUESDAY. THE LATER TIMING AND MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY
DEPICTED IN ONE MODEL CLUSTER/SCENARIO, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
12Z ECMWF, DOES POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT THIS TIME, THE
CONSENSUS IS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH LIMITS THE RISK OF IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING A BRIEF SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, WE'RE
LOOKING AT LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLK BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS. A CHANCE OF FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
MPV, BUT GIVEN ONLY SHORT DURATION LAST NIGHT AND ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY WEATHER, THINK LAMP (LOCAL AVIATION MOS PROGRAM) GUIDANCE
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON FOG; THE RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 SM (PEAKING NEAR 30% AT 10Z) ARE
REASONABLE. DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST (SOUTHEASTERLY AT PBG) DURING THE
DAY, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. ISOLATED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. SCATTERED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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