760
FXUS61 KBTV 060539
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 138 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A PERIOD OF HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 138 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL SET UP TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
2. FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID PERIOD, DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 138 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY BACKING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS CARVING ITSELF OUT. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LOW, AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AROUND LAKE
ONTARIO AS MOISTURE ROUNDS A 500MB RIDGE AXIS ALONG COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND. INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS TOWARDS
70 AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MID-MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH NO CAPPING
IN PLACE, ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GET UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK, MAYBE EVEN BY THE TIME THIS IS PUBLISHED, BUT MOST LIKELY MID
TO LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE BENEFIT TO
HAVING NO CAPPING IS THAT EARLY CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS THAT WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST IN 50-60 KNOT FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOLAR HEATING AND COULD PREVENT HEAT
INDICES FROM CREEPING INTO THE MID 90S. STILL WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, IT WILL FEEL A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE, TODAY.
SO SEEK SHADE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF DOING PROLONGED
ACTIVITIES.
THIS WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP BRING PWATS TO NEAR 2". COMBINED
WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND TROUGH PROVIDING SOME FOCUS, SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG. 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AT THE BOTTOM THRESHOLD FOR MARGINAL
ORGANIZATION (~25 KTS), AND THE NEWER RRFS SUGGESTS SOME CLUSTERING
IS POSSIBLE. SOUNDING PROFILES MATCH SCHEMATICS FOR WET MICROBURSTS,
AND SO ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON WHETHER MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE TONIGHT, BUT NOT COMPLETELY HIT
ZERO WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH
BEHIND THE TROUGH, AND SO NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY'S CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW, THERE WON'T BE QUITE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION DUE
TO A LACK OF A TROUGH, AND SO WE MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT
APPROACHING MID 90S HEAT INDICES, BUT WILL GIVE THINGS TIME TO SEE
HOW DEWPOINTS TREND OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A MESSY CONGLOMERATE OF TROUGHS WILL ANGLE
NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW RUMBLES COULD STILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EACH
DAY SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT COOLER AT THE VERY LEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH LESS HUMID COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOWS PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS AT THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S, BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEY WILL DROP A
FEW DEGREES TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOW 80S. A COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
LARGE INFLUENCE ON ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN,
ALTHOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO SEE AS WE GET CLOSER.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BULLET:
DISCUSSION
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, IT IS MUCH LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, ESPECIALLY KSLK, WHERE GREATER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. SCATTERED SHRA, SCATTERED TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...KREMER/HAYNES
AVIATION...KREMER
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