484
FXUS61 KBTV 061829
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
229 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL SET UP TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
2. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE SE
CONUS LEADING TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR SOUTH, AIDING IN THE
ADVECTION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW, NORTH OF THE BERMUDA HIGH, OVER OUR REGION, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR, WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS NOT A REAL DEFINED
BOUNDARY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY IN TANDEM WITH A MODEST
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. MESOANALYSIS DENOTES TERRAIN
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000-1500J/KG WITH AROUND 20-30 KNOTS OF SHEAR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE
MODEST AT BEST AROUND 5-6C/KM. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY
TO MID THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD INGREDIENTS ALIGN, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS, MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH LESSER
CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY WET MICROBURSTS LOOKS TO HAVE
WEAKENED WITH THE AXIS OF BETTER DCAPE WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
NONETHELESS, A SUB SEVERE STRONGER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS
DECAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PWS APPROACHING 2" WILL LEAD TO
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER ANY SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO WANE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS. IT WILL STILL
FEEL MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY LOWERING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. A FEW
HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN TONIGHT AS
A RESULT, PARTICULARLY AT PBG. WITH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER, PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL
RIVER VALLEYS, AND COULD EVEN DRIFT INTO THE UNFAVORED LOCATIONS,
SHOULD AN AREA RECEIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS
WITH SIMILAR INSTABILITY LEVELS, EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL. AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH REDUCED CHANCES FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEFINED TROUGH. ANY STORMS WILL
ALSO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EVENINGS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AREAWIDE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WITH A MORE DEFINED TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WILL GET A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EACH DAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH AS TROUGHING BECOMES
MORE DOMINATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOWS PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION, WILL SEE A COOLING TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS AT THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEY WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES TO BE IN
THE LOWER 70S AND LOW 80S. A COUPLE FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK,
ESPECIALLY KSLK, WHERE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING
OF ANY SHOWERS, PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAMES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT ANY TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS,
BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE MOSTLY JUST
HINTED AT THAT POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...NEILES/DANZIG
AVIATION...NEILES
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