135
FXUS61 KBTV 062347
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL SET UP TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
2. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 229 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE SE
CONUS LEADING TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR SOUTH, AIDING IN THE
ADVECTION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW, NORTH OF THE BERMUDA HIGH, OVER OUR REGION, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR, WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS NOT A REAL DEFINED
BOUNDARY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY IN TANDEM WITH A MODEST
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. MESOANALYSIS DENOTES TERRAIN
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000-1500J/KG WITH AROUND 20-30 KNOTS OF SHEAR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE
MODEST AT BEST AROUND 5-6C/KM. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY
TO MID THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD INGREDIENTS ALIGN, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS, MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH LESSER
CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY WET MICROBURSTS LOOKS TO HAVE
WEAKENED WITH THE AXIS OF BETTER DCAPE WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
NONETHELESS, A SUB SEVERE STRONGER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS
DECAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PWS APPROACHING 2" WILL LEAD TO
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER ANY SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO WANE BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS. IT WILL STILL
FEEL MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY LOWERING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. A FEW
HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN TONIGHT AS
A RESULT, PARTICULARLY AT PBG. WITH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER, PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL
RIVER VALLEYS, AND COULD EVEN DRIFT INTO THE UNFAVORED LOCATIONS,
SHOULD AN AREA RECEIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS
WITH SIMILAR INSTABILITY LEVELS, EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL. AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH REDUCED CHANCES FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEFINED TROUGH. ANY STORMS WILL
ALSO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EVENINGS. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AREAWIDE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WITH A MORE DEFINED TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WILL GET A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EACH DAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH AS TROUGHING BECOMES
MORE DOMINATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOWS PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION, WILL SEE A COOLING TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS AT THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEY WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES TO BE IN
THE LOWER 70S AND LOW 80S. A COUPLE FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST AND SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. NO DIRECT HITS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS, BUT A VICINITY THUNDER OR SHOWER IS PLAUSIBLE AT PBG AND
BTV THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WE WILL HAVE FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES SLK, MPV, AND EFK,
SHOULD ALL SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, PBG
AND BTV ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORED FOR AT LEAST PERIODS OF BR TONIGHT
GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING SOME RAIN AROUND SUNSET IN ADDITION
TO WELL OVER 0.5" OF NEW RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO NOTED MSS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEEING
INTERMITTENT FOG BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST BR GIVEN LOW STATISTICAL
PROBABILITIES OF IFR VISIBILITIES (BELOW 20% FOR ANY GIVEN
HOUR), WHILE RUT CURRENTLY LOOKS UNLIKELY TO SEE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...NEILES/DANZIG
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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