880
FXUS61 KBTV 070626
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 226 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY SEEM LESS MUGGY THAN ANTICIPATED, BUT STILL
PLENTY WARM AND HUMID.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 226 AM EDT FRIDAY...
1. VERY WARM TODAY, BUT A LITTLE LESS HUMID THAN EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH TODAY.
2. INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
3. AFTER A PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 226 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: OUR ANTICIPATED WARM, MOIST PATTERN FROM A BERMUDA HIGH
AND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW HAS ARRIVED IN FULL SWING. YESTERDAY'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS ANTICIPATED,
BUT WHAT DID DEVELOP PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, ESPECIALLY ALONG TICONDEROGA, NY EAST
INTO SHOREHAM, VT. FOR TODAY, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MORE APPRECIABLE DRY SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO MIX OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S, DOWN INTO THE MID 60S (MAYBE EVEN LOWER 60S)
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO IT APPEARS LIKE WE WILL JUST AVOID NEEDING
HEAT HEADLINES AGAIN, EVEN WITH TOASTY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WE LACK ANY FORCING, AND SO MAINLY A COUPLE SPOT
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS POSITIONED WHERE IT INTERFACES WITH THE SUMMERTIME LAKE
BREEZE OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOR TONIGHT, A COMPACT, BUT RELATIVELY VIGOROUS TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. THE WARM, HUMID AIR WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME NIGHTTIME RUMBLES OF THUNDER HEADING
INTO SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL AMBLE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ,
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH HOT ON ITS HEELS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SLIDES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. BEFORE MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES,
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE, AND SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL, THOUGH, SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR THAT
WILL FILTER IN. OUR DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 60 DURING
THE DAY. IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM CAN HOLD OUT LONG
ENOUGH, THEN WE MAY BE ABLE TO RADIATE OUT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE
COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE'S ON
LAST SURGE OF WARM, HUMID WEATHER AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH COMING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST, AND START DRIVING COOLER TOWARDS OUR
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR MONTREAL. THE FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
INCREASING SHEAR MAY MAKE MONDAY A DAY TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS BEFORE WE MAKE THE TRANSITION TO COOLER, BUT STILL SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE START OF NEXT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH LESS HUMID COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND WESTERLY FLOWS PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS AT THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEY WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES TO BE IN
THE LOWER 70S AND LOW 80S. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY, THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS
HAVE MADE FOR FAVORABLE FOG CONDITIONS, EVEN AT LESS FAVORABLE
TERMINALS. SEVERAL SITES ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING KSLK AND KPBG. NEARLY ALL TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRUT AND
POSSIBLY KMSS. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
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