195
FXUS61 KBTV 240646
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2. SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DRIER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS REMAIN OVER THE REGION, KEEPING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH INCREASED
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NORTHERN-
STREAM SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS CENTER WILL
PASS WELL TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, AS IS TYPICAL FOR INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOWS, A SERIES
OF SURFACE FRONTS/TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT
TO SEA, PREVENTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM REACHING THE REGION.
WHILE A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND INGREDIENTS FAVOR ANOTHER
MARGINAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP, THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
WILL BE REFINED BEFORE THEN. DURING THAT PERIOD, GEFS/EPS/CMCE
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT, THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL LEAD TO
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY, WHILE
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY
EXIST AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MPV IS IFR AND WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SLK HAS AN MVFR CLOUD DECK THAT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT, BUT IF IT DOES CLEAR, FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE
THERE. BTV HAS AN MVFR CLOUD DECK THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER.
ELSEWHERE IS VFR AND SHOULD MOSTLY STAY THAT WAY FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. RUT IS VFR BUT HAS A FOGBANK WITHIN A COUPLE MILES
OF THE AIRPORT AND WHILE IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AWAY, IT
COULD MAKE A FEW BRIEF INCURSIONS ONTO THE RUNWAY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID- MORNING, AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND EVENING,
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR VISIBILITY TO DEVELOP AT ANY GIVEN
TERMINAL. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A SHOWER REMAINS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK, THOUGH THEY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT FROM REACHING A VERMONT TERMINAL. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN TO SLK AND MPV TONIGHT, AND WHILE STRONGER FLOW AND
MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE FOG FORMATION MORE DIFFICULT, IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THERE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND
BETWEEN 5-10 KT, EXCEPT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WHEN THEY
SHOULD BE MORE VARIABLE AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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