854
FXUS61 KBTV 241105
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2. SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DRIER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS REMAIN OVER THE REGION, KEEPING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH INCREASED
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NORTHERN-
STREAM SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS CENTER WILL
PASS WELL TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, AS IS TYPICAL FOR INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOWS, A SERIES
OF SURFACE FRONTS/TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT
TO SEA, PREVENTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM REACHING THE REGION.
WHILE A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND INGREDIENTS FAVOR ANOTHER
MARGINAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP, THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
WILL BE REFINED BEFORE THEN. DURING THAT PERIOD, GEFS/EPS/CMCE
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT, THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL LEAD TO
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY, WHILE
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY EXIST DUE
TO PATCH FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID-MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND EVENING, AND THEY COULD BRIEFLY
CAUSE MVFR VISIBILITY TO DEVELOP AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A SHOWER REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK,
THOUGH THEY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FROM REACHING A VERMONT
TERMINAL. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO SLK AND MPV
TONIGHT, AND WHILE STRONGER FLOW AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION MORE DIFFICULT, IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THERE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND BETWEEN 5-10 KT, TRANSITIONING TO A MIX
OF SOUTHERLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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