365
FXUS61 KBTV 241728
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2. SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DRIER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS REMAIN OVER THE REGION, KEEPING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH INCREASED
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NORTHERN-
STREAM SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH ITS CENTER WILL
PASS WELL TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, AS IS TYPICAL FOR INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOWS, A SERIES
OF SURFACE FRONTS/TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP ANY POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT
TO SEA, PREVENTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM REACHING THE REGION.
WHILE A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND INGREDIENTS FAVOR ANOTHER
MARGINAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP, THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
WILL BE REFINED BEFORE THEN. DURING THAT PERIOD, GEFS/EPS/CMCE
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT, THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL LEAD TO
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY, WHILE
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE ON AND
OFF SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR VISIBILITY AT ANY SITE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, PBG AND MSS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
GET A DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE AROUND
20-50% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ALL SITES. FROM 00Z-06Z TUESDAY,
HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES REALLY ZERO IN ON NORTHERN NEW YORK SITES,
MAINLY MSS AND SLK, AS GREAT LAKES MOISTURE FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS IN AND AROUND THESE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10
KNOTS BY 20Z- 23Z MONDAY, REMAINING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT MSS AND SLK AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY FROM THE
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE, THEN OTHER SITES SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AROUND
10Z-12Z TUESDAY. SLK IS THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE IFR LEVEL
CEILINGS TONIGHT AROUND 09Z AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
TUESDAY. ON THE VERMONT SIDE OF THINGS, SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT GET RAIN
TODAY. IT'LL BE A NARROW WINDOW BEFORE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE ARRIVES
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER CEILINGS, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF
ANY RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL. THINKING MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF MIST
OR FOG AT MPV WILL OCCUR 09Z THROUGH 13Z-15Z TUESDAY. WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR,
THOUGH MPV COULD BE PROTECTED ENOUGH FROM THE OVERALL FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST SOME PERSISTENT MIST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
AVIATION...STORM
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