407
FXUS61 KBTV 241843
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 242 PM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 242 PM EDT MONDAY...
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
2. SHOWERY AND MILD END TO THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DRIER
AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 242 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO
AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO MAYBE 30 MPH OR SO, BUT NOTHING STRONG/SEVERE
IS ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS WILL WANE IN COVERAGE WITH SUNSET, EXCEPT
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE W/SW FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATER WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NY. VERMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COMFORTABLE, MAINLY IN THE 50S,
THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DROP INTO THE
40S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON
TUESDAY, PROVIDING LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY, AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY ISOLATED. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST,
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S,
THOUGH SOME SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY
REMAIN IN THE 60S. AFTER ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT,
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LATE THIS WEEK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ROTATE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA, ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY, SENDING A SURFACE LOW
THROUGH QUEBEC AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWINGING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RUN AROUND 60-90% DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HIGHEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (FIRST ROUND) AS
WELL AS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON (SECOND ROUND AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT). THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
MOST OF US AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE MILD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THEN,
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WE SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE
40S TO MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END FRIDAY
NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO DIVERGES OVER THE
WEEKEND, SO CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE MOMENT, UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER CANADA WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US, SO WEEKEND
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S, THOUGH A FEW LOW 80S
IN THE SOUTHERN AND WIDER VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO START BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF SHOWER CHANCES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, ANYWHERE FROM THE 60S TO LOWER
80S. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS ON THE WARMER SIDE, IN LINE WITH
ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IF WE'RE TO BELIEVE THE
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE ON AND
OFF SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR VISIBILITY AT ANY SITE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, PBG AND MSS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
GET A DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE AROUND
20-50% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ALL SITES. FROM 00Z-06Z TUESDAY,
HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES REALLY ZERO IN ON NORTHERN NEW YORK SITES,
MAINLY MSS AND SLK, AS GREAT LAKES MOISTURE FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS IN AND AROUND THESE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10
KNOTS BY 20Z- 23Z MONDAY, REMAINING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT MSS AND SLK AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY FROM THE
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE, THEN OTHER SITES SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AROUND
10Z-12Z TUESDAY. SLK IS THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE IFR LEVEL
CEILINGS TONIGHT AROUND 09Z AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
TUESDAY. ON THE VERMONT SIDE OF THINGS, SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT GET RAIN
TODAY. IT'LL BE A NARROW WINDOW BEFORE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE ARRIVES
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER CEILINGS, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF
ANY RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL. THINKING MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF MIST
OR FOG AT MPV WILL OCCUR 09Z THROUGH 13Z-15Z TUESDAY. WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR,
THOUGH MPV COULD BE PROTECTED ENOUGH FROM THE OVERALL FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST SOME PERSISTENT MIST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/STORM
AVIATION...STORM
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