209
FXUS61 KBTV 252347
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 303 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 303 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1. SHOWERS WIND DOWN THIS EVENING, WITH DRIER WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
3. A TRANQUIL PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 303 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD. ACTIVITY
WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER. AFTER INITIAL CLEARING
THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S, EXCEPT IN THE
USUAL SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WHICH COULD DIP INTO THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WE'LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. WHILE MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FORCING
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL LEND TOWARD
ORGANIZATION OF STORM CELLS, WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. WHILE AREAS JUST TO OUR SOUTH SEEM THE
MOST FAVORABLE, SPC'S DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE, WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SWINGING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOW, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD
COME THROUGH DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S, THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NY WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY THERE. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ANOTHER DRY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY IS ON TRACK. FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED FAIR WEATHER, A THERMAL
RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARDS OR INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY
AND WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH. WHILE A WARMING TREND IS
THE CONSENSUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SLIGHTLY
FAVORS A SCENARIO WHERE THE RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN CONTRAST, THE
LATEST AIGFS SHOWS 850 MB ANOMALIES REACHING INTO THE 90-97TH
PERCENTILE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE 80-85TH
PERCENTILE, LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY,
THE MOST NOTEWORTHY PART OF THE LONGER TERM PATTERN WOULD BE A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SIGNALS IN THE
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST VERMONT, AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/WESTERN
AREAS, MAY HAVE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, BUT OVERALL THE
RISK CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON HOW MONDAY PLAYS
OUT; WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY THAT DAY. A LATER
PASSAGE WOULD SUPPORT STRONGER VARIETY STORMS ON TUESDAY, WHILE
MONDAY GENERALLY LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY. LARGE UNCERTAINTY KEEPS THUNDER
PROBABILITIES RATHER LOW (MAINLY UNDER 15%, LOWER TUESDAY THAN
MONDAY) BUT BEARS WATCHING. AT THE LEAST, THIS PERIOD LOOKS
UNSETTLED WITH RAIN AT SOME POINT RATHER LIKELY. RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1" ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-30% RANGE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS, AND 20-50% OF EXCEEDING 0.5".
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG ANTICIPATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL SIGNALS ARE STILL MIXED, AND
THUS CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS VS FOG AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE IS ON
THE LOWER SIDE. AT THIS POINT, HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MOSTLY
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF FLOW MAINTAINED OFF
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP MIST AND FOG, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT
MEASURED RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, ALONG WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD
TO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/SCATTERING OF ANY REMAINING LOW CEILINGS
AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUELL
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