389
FXUS61 KBTV 260659
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. QUIET WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2. FOLLOWING A DRIER WEEKEND, SHOWER CHANCES RETURN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO AND
THEN QUEBEC. SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR AREA. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ON SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME
MODEST SHEAR MAY HELP SOME STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE FRONTS AND CROSSES OUR
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND, THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE SOME SIGNS OF SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, WHICH MAY SPUR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY.
SOME OF WHICH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OUR FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ZONAL TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FAVORING MORE HIT OR
MISS SHOWERS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS BY 3-5 DEGREES, SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND LOW 80S IN THE WIDER VALLEYS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-19C. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCLINE, PEAKING MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE A RESULT OF A TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
PICK UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RIDE THROUGH THE THERMAL
RIDGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE MARGINAL MONDAY, SOME THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DRIVEN BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A SLOWER FRONT
MONDAY WOULD HELP SPUR THUNDER CHANCES, AND PERHAPS SOME
STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AS STORM CHANCES WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. A FASTER FRONT
MONDAY WOULD LOWER THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY. WHILE THE PATTERN IS
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOW, WITH ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
0.5" HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND AI SUITE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL TERMINALS TREND TOWARDS
VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE MOVED
TOWARDS LOW STRATUS AS THE MAIN FLIGHT REDUCTION SOURCE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT SLK/RUT ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO
BOUNCING IFR CIGS AROUND 500FT AGL. SLK SHOULD SEE MORE
PREVAILING IFR UNTIL SUNRISE WITH LOW STRATUS TO 500-1000FT AGL.
FOG OBSERVED IN THE OTTER CREEK VALLEY NEAR RUT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE IN AND OUT OF THE RUT TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
WITH AT THE LEAST VCFG. HAVE USED A TEMPO FOR RUT, AND MORE
PREVAILING IFR AT SLK. MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS BECOME
MORE TRICKY FOR MPV/EFK/MSS WITH SATELLITE DEPICTING SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS. FOG IS ALREADY OBSERVED AT VSF, BUT
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER FOG WILL DEVELOP NEAR EFK/MSS/MPV,
OR WHETHER THERE WILL BE JUST LOW STRATUS. REGARDLESS, CIGS AT
THE LEAST WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN 2000-3000FT
AGL, WITH EFK ALREADY SCT023. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AT
EFK/MPV. THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME FOG IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE MAY DRIFT OVER MSS NEAR SUNRISE, AND THUS HAVE ALSO
USED A TEMPO GROUP TO DEPICT THIS. LOW STRATUS AND ANY FOG WILL
SCOUR OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z, WITH ALL TERMINALS TRENDING TOWARDS
VFR CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5000FT AGL AND
SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 10,000FT AGL ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME SLIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST CHANNELING AT
BTV/PBG AND MSS, RESPECTIVELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PACKAGE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/NEILES
AVIATION...DANZIG
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