159
FXUS61 KBTV 261052
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. QUIET WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2. FOLLOWING A DRIER WEEKEND, SHOWER CHANCES RETURN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO AND
THEN QUEBEC. SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR AREA. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ON SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME
MODEST SHEAR MAY HELP SOME STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE FRONTS AND CROSSES OUR
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND, THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE SOME SIGNS OF SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, WHICH MAY SPUR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY.
SOME OF WHICH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OUR FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ZONAL TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FAVORING MORE HIT OR
MISS SHOWERS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS BY 3-5 DEGREES, SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND LOW 80S IN THE WIDER VALLEYS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-19C. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCLINE, PEAKING MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE A RESULT OF A TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
PICK UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RIDE THROUGH THE THERMAL
RIDGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE MARGINAL MONDAY, SOME THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DRIVEN BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A SLOWER FRONT
MONDAY WOULD HELP SPUR THUNDER CHANCES, AND PERHAPS SOME
STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AS STORM CHANCES WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. A FASTER FRONT
MONDAY WOULD LOWER THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY. WHILE THE PATTERN IS
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOW, WITH ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
0.5" HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND AI SUITE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FOG AND LOW STRATUS RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS BELOW 500FT AGL AT SLK/MPV/RUT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARDS
VFR BETWEEN 12-13Z. ELSEWHERE LOW STRATUS TO 3000-4000FT AGL WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS MORNING LIFTING TO AROUND 5000FT AGL BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 14Z
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A LAKE BREEZE AT PBG/BTV WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, RESPECTIVELY, BETWEEN 15 AND
22Z. BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLIES AND INCREASE TO PREVAILING 5-10 KNOTS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT, WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH WINDS ABOVE CALM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
ANY SITE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
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