310
FXUS61 KBTV 271909
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. SEVERAL WAVES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW LOCALIZED STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
2. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RATHER MESSY SCENARIO ACRS OUR
CWA THIS AFTN WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF/WARM FRNT LIFTING ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT, WHILE FIRST COLD FRNT IS
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SECONDARY COLD FRNT IS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PIECE MEAL STYLE
SCENARIO LIMITS SFC CONVERGENCE AND DISPLACES STRONGEST
FORCING/SHEAR WITH BEST INSTABILITY, RESULTING IN MOSTLY STRONG TO
VERY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THRU THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMICS AND WIND PROFILES, A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 1200-1800 J/KG AHEAD OF INITIAL BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE CPV, WHILE SECONDARY
INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SLV WITH VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF
COLD FRNT. MEANWHILE, THE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 25 TO 35
KNOT RANGE WITH GREATEST VALUES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER
LATEST ANALYSIS. BOTTOM LINE, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
THRU SUNSET THIS EVENING ACRS OUR CWA. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC TO
KEEP SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #631 TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA
THIS EVENING.
GOES-19 MID LVL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS SHIFTING TOWARD
OUR CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE ONLY PLACE TO
WATCH WOULD BE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT, WHERE LOW LVL FLOW PARALLELS
MID/UPPER LVL FLOW AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES, BUT OVERALL
SYSTEM IS PROGRESS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. PW ANALYSIS
SHOWS VALUES NEAR 1.5" THIS EVENING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY, BUT AS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
MORNING, VALUES FALL TO 1.0" OR LESS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT FCST CHALLENGE BECOMES FOG/MIST POTENTIAL AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. GIVEN UPSTREAM SATL
IMAGERY FEEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY THAT COULD TRANSITION INTO
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY VALLEYS. ALSO, AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET WL HAVE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF FOG, ESPECIALLY CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
VT. TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY EVENING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
HIGH CHC POPS AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRNT THRU 18Z, BEFORE MUCH
DRIER AIR DEVELOPS BY MID AFTN. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80F ACRS OUR CWA. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER PROBABILITY OF FOG AS TEMPS DROP BELOW CROSS OVER VALUES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS MID 30S TO MID 50S, WARMEST
NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND COOLEST SLK. SATURDAY IS QUIET WITH HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS/HUMIDITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WE EXPECTED AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH GENERAL CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. THE GOOD NEWS,
HOWEVER, IS THAT NO INDIVIDUAL DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASH-OUT AT THIS
TIME BUT IT'LL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
PLANNED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WHICH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z. WE WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 3 TO 5 SM
IF ANY TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 6Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WNW ON
FRIDAY. IFR STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY AT KSLK BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AND
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT WITH A
TEMP FOR IFR FOG ADDED AT KMPV.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING, BECOMING 1 TO 3 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TABER
DISCUSSION...TABER/CLAY
AVIATION...CLAY
MARINE...TABER
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