966
FXUS61 KBTV 281122
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 226 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 226 AM EDT FRIDAY...
1. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
2. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT, AND GIVE
WAY TO ROUNDS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 226 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SOME LIGHT ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS. THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST IS JUST ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS DRIVING SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NEW
YORK. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO VERMONT JUST AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WHERE SOME BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED.
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THE FRONT DUE TO CONVECTION YESTERDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER, SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER, THOUGH CHANCES FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
ARE LOW TO NONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN ADDITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL HEATING. THOUGH WITH
COOLING FLOW ALOFT, AND WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST, HIGHS IN THE RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW COOLER TRENDS WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. HIGHS IN SOUTH AND EASTERN VERMONT MAY REMAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, TO NEAR 80 WITH THE FRONT REACHING
THEM LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURE OUTSIDE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN FALLING WELL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S. LOCALIZED SUB 40 TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR VALLEY FOG WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ASIDE FROM FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LIGHT
BREEZES FROM SOUTHWEST CHANNELED FLOW IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
10 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE
IN THE MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIP SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MOISTURE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, BUT SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY. LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FRONT IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEAR THE US-11 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BECOMING ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: OVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF MONTREAL WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. A HUMID AIR
MASS WILL AMBLE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A 500MB HIGH AROUND 595 DAM
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. VARIOUS VORTS PICKED UP FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE A COMPACT UPPER LOW
TRACKS EAST ACROSS CANADA. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE DRY AIR LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG SUNDAY'S FRONT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY APPEARS LIKELY TO WAFFLE AROUND THE REGION AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
HELPS SLOW THINGS UP A BIT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS CANADA WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST NEXT THURSDAY. SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE, AND THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO FRIDAY UNTIL THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMBLES
EAST.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER SWATHS OF
RAIN ALONG THE WAFFLING BOUNDARY. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL HAVE A GREATER
PROBABILITY SOUTH. BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY, PROBABILITIES OF 1
(30-40%) AND 2" (~10%) OVER THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME ARE RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS DOES SHOW SOME SPREAD IN
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE, AND SO WE'LL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN INITIALLY PRESENTED. THERE ARE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS LOCATED AROUND 1500-3500 FT AGL ACROSS THE REGION AND
PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT IMPACTING KMPV AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS NORTHWEST OF KSLK AND KPBG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS. USED PROB30S WITH SOME INCREASING COVERAGE AS THE FRONT
REACHES EAST INTO VERMONT ABOUT 14Z-19Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
COULD STILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE FRONT, WITH TERMINALS TRENDING
VFR AFTER 19Z. WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
AND WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 18
KNOTS. SKIES WILL TREND CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DECREASE BEYOND 00Z
SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
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