455
FXUS61 KBTV 130725
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY (<15%) OF A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
2. CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS AS FAST
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IS <5%.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: CRNT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IMPACTING MOST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CHANNELED 700-500MB VORTICITY. THIS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 15Z THIS MORNING WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN. THESE BREAKS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DWPTS
IN THE 60S, CREATING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 800-1200 J/KG.
HOWEVER, SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A WARM NOSE OF 13-14C AIR NEAR
800MB, WHICH COULD ACT AS A CAP UNTIL BETTER FORCING AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY/THIS EVENING. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
BEHIND INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE THIS MORNING MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE MOST OF OUR CWA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE, BUT FEEL THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONS
WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ANTICIPATED DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER, IF A
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH, GIVEN THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL LVL WIND FIELDS, AN ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET,
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR SFC
COLD FRNT AND POTENT 700-500MB S/W ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE
DYNAMICS AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE WL PRODUCE A LINE OF QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 03Z-09Z MONDAY.
MODERATE CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MONDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS THRU EARLY AFTN,
BEFORE DRIER AIR DEVELOPS AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. BUILDING
1028MB HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WL RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
WITH SOME PATCHY FROST LIKELY IN THE DACKS/NEK BY TUES MORNING. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 40S ANTICIPATED ACRS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTS TO INDICATE A
FAST/ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR MOST OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IS VERY LOW ATTM. TEMPS WL
TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO THURS. PRECIP
SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR CRNT SCENARIO WITH 700-500MB
VORTICITY LOBE ANGLING ACRS OUR CWA AS SFC COLD FRNT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. THIS WL SUPPORT EXPANDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS LATE WEDS INTO THURS, ESPECIALLY WITH PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5". SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY, HIGHEST
POPS/QPF LOOKS TO BE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS, CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MID
40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES. CURRENTLY MVFR CIGS AT SLK WITH REST OF OUR SITES
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS. AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS EXPECT CIGS TO TREND TOWARD MVFR AT ALL SITES IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF IFR LIKELY AT SLK/MPV AND
EFK BY 09Z. AS INVERSION LOWERS WITH BLOCKED FLOW, EVEN A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BTV NEAR SUNRISE. VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY AROUND 6SM BUT BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER
ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS, BUT LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MOUNTAIN
SITES TO VFR VALLEYS BY 15Z AND MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY FOR GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 3
FEET, BUT LOCALLY 3 TO 5 FEET POSSIBLE. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TABER
DISCUSSION...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...TABER
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