727
FXUS61 KBTV 131844
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
244 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 241 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 241 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
2. MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
3. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL BECOME COMPLETELY DRY BY MID-
AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER PASSES TO THE EAST, IT WILL HELP DECREASE
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CAUSING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
UNTIL 7-8 PM. THESE WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH LOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THEM WEAK. A BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST. DEW
POINTS HAVE REACHED AROUND 70 THERE AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN HAVE
CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE CLOUDY MARINE
MODIFIED AIRMASS FARTHER SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE STORMS TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO MID-
WEEK, THOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD MOSTLY STAY TO THE
NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD MOSTLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS AS A DYING COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. OVERALL, DURING THIS STRETCH, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGH ZONAL AND UNBLOCKED
NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING WAVES MOVING THROUGH
EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WITH HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGES. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS
TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY,
AND ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH WAVE AMPLITUDE REMAINING SHALLOW, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT SOME MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE SINCE PWATS
CLIMB ABOVE 1.25". A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING OUT OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING PARTIALLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR AFTER 07Z. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKIES, FOG AND STRATUS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT SLK/MPV/EFK, BUT THERE IS A 10-25%
CHANCE FOR CIGS TO FORM BELOW 1000FT FOR MOST TERMINALS; NOTE THE
6SM DUE TO BR AND SCT002- 004 IN THE TAFS FOR BTV/PBG/MSS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AT RUT BY 08Z AS BKN033 SAGS LOWER WITH
DECREASING WINDS ALOFT. AFTER 12-15Z, CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
SOME NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES. GUSTS WILL BE 10-20KTS. MORE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT BUT MORE OF A QUESTION OF
WHEN IT WILL SET UP FOR EACH TERMINAL IN THE 02-08Z TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD END THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM 1-3 FEET TO AROUND 1 FOOT TONIGHT,
DROPPING AS THE WIND DECREASES AND THE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
MARINE...MYSKOWSKI
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