065
FXUS61 KBTV 140532
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 241 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 241 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
2. MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
3. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN VERMONT WILL BECOME COMPLETELY DRY BY MID-
AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER PASSES TO THE EAST, IT WILL HELP DECREASE
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CAUSING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
UNTIL 7-8 PM. THESE WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH LOW INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THEM WEAK. A BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST. DEW
POINTS HAVE REACHED AROUND 70 THERE AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN HAVE
CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE CLOUDY MARINE
MODIFIED AIRMASS FARTHER SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE STORMS TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO MID-
WEEK, THOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD MOSTLY STAY TO THE
NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD MOSTLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS AS A DYING COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. OVERALL, DURING THIS STRETCH, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGH ZONAL AND UNBLOCKED
NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING WAVES MOVING THROUGH
EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WITH HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGES. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS
TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY,
AND ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH WAVE AMPLITUDE REMAINING SHALLOW, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT SOME MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THURSDAY WAVE SINCE PWATS
CLIMB ABOVE 1.25". A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW, EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR MTN TAF SITES
OF MPV/SLK AND EFK EARLY THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN BY SUNSET. ANY
LINGERING MTN MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME VFR BY 15Z AT ALL SITES. NO
FOG IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO BRISK WINDS AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/BOYD
AVIATION...TABER
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