492
FXUS61 KBTV 141114
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 313 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 313 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
2. A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL PATTERN PREVAILS WITH FAST
FLOW ALOFT WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACT
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 313 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY, BRINGING DRIER WEATHER WITH IT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, THEN TRENDING LIGHTER AS THE HIGH
RIDGES IN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL,
TOPPING OUT ON THE 60S AREAWIDE. TONIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7, WHICH RESULTS IN
CHANGEABLE WX CONDITIONS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL INDICATE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP (60-75%) IS ON THURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCE (30-40%) POPS NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE FAST
700-500MB FLOW OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS, PRECIP ON THURS WL BE QUICKLY
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA, AS PW VALUES APPROACH 1.5".
GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY,
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FLOODING IS VERY LOW ON THURS. NEXT LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND WITH SFC
LOW PRES MOVING ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW LVL THERMAL GRADIENT.
GIVEN TIME FRAME, A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
HIGHEST QPF IS NOTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AS EVENT BECOMES
BETTER SAMPLED WITH TIME, POPS FOR A PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED, BUT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
ATTM. TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY STEADY FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR POSSIBLE ON THURS ASSOCIATED WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND FEEL LATEST WPC GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES TOO HIGH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
MTNS TO MID 70S VALLEYS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE, WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND OUR SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS RESULTED IN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK WILL BECOME VFR
BY 15/16Z THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN BY SUNSET.
TONIGHT AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BECOME TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG. HIGHEST PROBABILITY (90-100%) WILL BE AT MPV/SLK, WITH
LIKELY (60%) FOG AT EFK, CHANCE (30-40%) AT MSS/RUT/BTV AND LOW
PROBABILITY <15% AT PBG. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH PRODUCE
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ROUGHLY FROM 07Z-12Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...TABER/NEILES
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...NEILES
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