716
FXUS61 KBTV 141843
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...
1. DRY AND SEASONABLE BEFORE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
2. COOL WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
UP UNTIL A WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT, LEADING TO
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 30S AWAY FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FROST IS
EXPECTED IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS. THEREFORE, HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE 70S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND NO THREATS OF FROST. IT'S A GREAT STRETCH OF SEPTEMBER WEATHER
IN STORE. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ON A WARM
FRONT. EPS MEMBERS GENERALLY FAVOR A WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH FRONT
WHILE GEFS AND CMCE MEMBERS GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT AND STRATIFORM, WITH THE
WET EPS PROBABILITIES OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER THURSDAY'S PRECIPITATION, ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. ANY SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOW FOR A GORGEOUS A FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH A STEADY
NORTH BREEZE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM OVERHEAD, AND
THAT SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
THE BROAD VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING. SO PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TAMPED
DOWN. GIVEN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME, MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. CHANNELED FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A FAST, 100-120
KNOTS AT 250MB JUST TO OUR NORTH ARE FAIRLY FAST. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
ON THE LREF DEPICTS MORE UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TO MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.
THE MEMBERS WITH FASTER 700MB FLOW FEATURE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE FLUXES. TRACKING RAIN
THROUGH PANELS OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE ARE A HANDFUL
THAT ARE VERY LATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WELL INTO SUNDAY. WILL
ALSO NOTE THAT THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS WITH A SOLID SWATH OF RAIN.
DIGGING THROUGH NBM PROBABILITIES, THERE'S ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF
1+ INCH OF RAIN AND A 10-25% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF RAIN FOCUSED
NEAR OR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION OR NOT. IF IT DOESN'T, THEN WE'LL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE 60S TO NEAR 70, AND IF IT DOES, THEN WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND OUR SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS RESULTED IN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK WILL BECOME VFR
BY 15/16Z THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN BY SUNSET.
TONIGHT AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BECOME TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG. HIGHEST PROBABILITY (90-100%) WILL BE AT MPV/SLK, WITH
LIKELY (60%) FOG AT EFK, CHANCE (30-40%) AT MSS/RUT/BTV AND LOW
PROBABILITY <15% AT PBG. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH PRODUCE
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ROUGHLY FROM 07Z-12Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ004.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ030-031-
034.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...HAYNES
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