543
FXUS61 KBTV 150711
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 311 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 311 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. PRIMARILY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
2. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 311 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING, PROVIDING US WITH
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FROST IN THE ADIRONDACK REGION AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELED FLOW. GIVEN DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOL AIR IN PLACE, LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE RATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LONG DURATION
OF SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ASIDE FROM THE LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MILDER CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
WITH A BROAD CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING BEING IN THE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING HOURS AND SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES. BECAUSE THE FRONT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PROBABLY BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL
POSSIBLY LIMIT HEATING ON WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK GIVEN FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL (NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE) DURING THE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
HIGHS NEAR 80 IN THE UPPER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE LOW
60S, IT WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BOUT OF SUMMER WEATHER.
THE NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CHANCE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR RAIN LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST, SO THE FOOTPRINT AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD LIKEWISE BE
LIMITED. TRENDS IN THE DATA SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS GENERALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH AN EARLIER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION, BUT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
LAST DAY FOR A WHILE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S.
A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE YET AGAIN, BUT BRING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF REFRESHING AIR ON NORTHWEST FLOW. NOTHING
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY WITH THIS AIR MASS APPEARS IN THE DATA AT
THIS TIME WITH ONLY MODEST ADVECTION; EVEN IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THEY ONLY DROP A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S AMIDST FULL SUNSHINE LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST COOL AND DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE TIMED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOCUS FOR THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT GENERAL
THOUGHT IS FOR RAIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING A WETTING RAIN. ECMWF
DOES KEEP THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT GFS SOLUTION
SHOWS MOST AREAS HAVING RAIN. WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
WILL BE EXTENT OF FOG AS IT DEVELOPS. MAINLY EXPECTING VALLEY
FOG, ROUGHLY 06Z-13Z. THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE IFR/LIFR IN
FOG WILL BE MPV/EFK/SLK, BUT IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TERMINAL. HAVE GONE WITH 1/2-1SM IN FG AT MPV/SLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST, WITH 3-6SM IN BR AT EFK/MSS. SKC SKIES
TONIGHT GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TOWARDS S AT 5-10 KT AFTER 14Z TUE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING, CHANNELED SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TOWARDS NOON. THEY SHOULD
RAMP UP ON THE BROAD WATERS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A
RESULT, WAVES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE INTO THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY REACH THE
3 TO 4 FEET RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF COLCHESTER REEF AND 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE IN THE INLAND SEA AS WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN
INTENSITY. ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHARPLY DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ004.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ030-031-034.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
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