910
FXUS61 KBTV 152344
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 233 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND HAS TRENDED DRIER.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 233 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1. DRY AND SEASONABLE BEFORE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
2. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASING THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAINING
SEASONABLE COOL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 233 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST, AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE EVENING. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING THE CHANCE OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WEAK FORCING AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THIS TO FALL AS VIRGA, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. AN
AREA OF RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ON A WARM FRONT.
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION AND A
FARTHER NORTH FRONT, WHILE GEFS AND CMCE MEMBERS GENERALLY KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED INTO A BIT MORE OF AN
AGREEMENT WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOUTHERN VERMONT SHOULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS, BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT AND STRATIFORM, WITH
THE WET EPS PROBABILITIES OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A WASHED OUT COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
KEEPING MOST, IF NOT ALL, PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS WILL BE DRAPED MORE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
YORK WITH BETTER FORCING SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THAT SAID, MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY DENOTE A SUBTLE REDEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ALL IN ALL, OUR
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE TRENDING LOWER. OUR FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN CONFLUENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TOWARDS NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
VARY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SET UP A DRY CORRIDOR FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE A MOISTURE AXIS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTH. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH DRY AIR THERE IS WILL DETERMINE IF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER POTENTIAL ARE ABLE TO PENETRATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION, OR
IF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR KEEPS OUR SHOWER CHANCES SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
REGARDLESS, ZONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH SOME COLD HOLLOWS HOVERING ABOUT THE UPPER
30S. SKY CONDITIONS FAVOR MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CURRENT CEILINGS AOA 8000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 3500-5000 FT, EXCEPT AT SLK
WHERE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 2500 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 16Z WED, THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY LIFTING CEILINGS
THEREAFTER. A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, SO MENTION IN THE TAFS IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS LIGHT S/SE THIS EVENING WILL
OCCASIONALLY BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT BTV AS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS JET MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT, AS WELL, PARTICULARLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS
TURN TO THE W/SW AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY SHOULD RAMP UP ON THE BROAD WATERS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND NEAR 20
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS A RESULT, WAVES WILL MARKEDLY
INCREASE INTO THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE BY THIS EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY REACH THE 3 TO 4 FEET RANGE IN THE
VICINITY OF COLCHESTER REEF AND 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE IN THE INLAND
SEA AS WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY. ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHARPLY
DIMINISHING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/DANZIG
AVIATION...HASTINGS
MARINE...NWS BTV
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