674
FXUS61 KBTV 160648
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
248 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FOR FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED AND HUMIDITY HAS DECREASED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO START THE WEEKEND
WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PATCHY TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FROST IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT.
3. COOLER WEATHER WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF DECAYING FRONT TODAY, THE OLD
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION APPEARS TO HELP BLOSSOM RAIN OVER OUR
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE LARGE
WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT FOOTPRINT OF THE RAIN, STILL FAVORING
OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT LOCALES WHILE RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE
QUESTIONABLE AS YOU GO NORTHWARD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
INSUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES TO GET DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDER. STILL, SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER STATISTICALLY ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS EXIT TO OUR EAST.
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC EARLY FALL DAY.
FOLLOWING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY, MUCH DRIER, COOL AIR WILL BE EVIDENT. HAVE TRENDED WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS HIGHER AS GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT WOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD 30 MPH GUSTS
IN MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT, WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
TAP INTO SUCH DEW POINTS WILL PLUMMET DURING THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. AS A RESULT, LOW HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY, LIKELY BELOW 40% IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A BREEZY AFTERNOON, COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY CREST SUFFICIENTLY OVERHEAD THAT WINDS SLACKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN MOST SHELTERED
LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET ELEVATION. THE LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE
LOW TEMPERATURES SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIRST GUESS IF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS AS EFFICIENT AS IT COULD BE IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP,
SHOWING TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR PERENNIAL COLD SPOT AT THE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL
AIRPORT CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW OF 29, WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING AND SEEMS REASONABLE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A COOLER START TO THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY. THE
AIR WILL REMAIN CRISP WITH DEW POINTS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW, AS THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE ABOVE 50% OF NORMAL
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AIR MASS SLIGHTLY MODIFIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF
HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP OUR REGION DRIER WITH SYSTEM REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. GFS HAS NOW RETURNED TO A SOLUTION WITH OUR REGION
HAVING SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL HOPE FOR
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED FROM 06-18Z SUNDAY. WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND THEN
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MUCH QUIETER AVIATION FORECAST WITH NO
FOG EXPECTED AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN HAS NOT LOWERED ANY CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES, PRETTY LOW IMPACT. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR ALL
SITES WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 227 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS
ON THE NORTH LAKE AND BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
NORTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
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