981
FXUS61 KBTV 161129
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FOR FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED AND HUMIDITY HAS
DECREASED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO START THE WEEKEND
WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PATCHY TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FROST
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT.
3. COOLER WEATHER WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF DECAYING FRONT TODAY,
THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING. THE COMBINATION OF
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION APPEARS TO HELP BLOSSOM RAIN
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY EXPANDING
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT FOOTPRINT OF THE RAIN, STILL
FAVORING OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT LOCALES WHILE RAIN CHANCES BECOME
MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU GO NORTHWARD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
INSUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES TO GET DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDER. STILL, SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER STATISTICALLY ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS EXIT TO OUR EAST.
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC EARLY FALL DAY.
FOLLOWING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY, MUCH DRIER, COOL AIR WILL BE EVIDENT. HAVE TRENDED WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS HIGHER AS GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT WOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD 30 MPH GUSTS
IN MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT, WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
TAP INTO SUCH DEW POINTS WILL PLUMMET DURING THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. AS A RESULT, LOW HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY, LIKELY BELOW 40% IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A BREEZY AFTERNOON, COOL HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY CREST SUFFICIENTLY OVERHEAD THAT WINDS
SLACKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN
MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET ELEVATION. THE LATEST
NBM 10TH PERCENTILE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIRST
GUESS IF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS AS EFFICIENT AS IT COULD BE IN
THIS TYPE OF SETUP, SHOWING TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR PERENNIAL
COLD SPOT AT THE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AIRPORT CURRENTLY SHOWS A
LOW OF 29, WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING AND SEEMS REASONABLE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A COOLER START TO THE DAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN ON FRIDAY. THE AIR WILL REMAIN CRISP WITH DEW POINTS AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
QUITE LOW, AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
ABOVE 50% OF NORMAL FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AIR MASS SLIGHTLY
MODIFIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP OUR REGION DRIER WITH SYSTEM
REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR REGION. GFS HAS NOW RETURNED TO A
SOLUTION WITH OUR REGION HAVING SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WILL HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED
FROM 06-18Z SUNDAY. WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND THEN TREND BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LIFT AS WELL. MAINLY A
WIND FORECAST FOR ALL SITES WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY. WILL WATCH FOR FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EFK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 227 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS
ON THE NORTH LAKE AND BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
NORTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...NEILES/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
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