582
FXUS61 KBTV 162349
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. A FEW SHOWERS TOMORROW BEFORE DRY WEATHER FINISHES OUT THE
WEEK.
2. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TRENDING DOWN THIS WEEKEND, BUT
REMAINING SEASONABLE COOL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN AREA OF RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ON A WARM
FRONT. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT WILL
MAKE IT, WITH THE CAMS GENERALLY SPLIT. SOME MEMBERS LIKE THE HRRR
FAVOR A SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND BRING THE RAIN UP INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT, WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM KEEP IT MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AND RESTRICT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
THEREFORE, A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE IT IS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FARTHER
NORTH. THE RAIN WILL BE STRATIFORM AND LIGHT, WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS
UP TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S AND 30S, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S WITH
LOW HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A WASHED OUT COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
KEEPING MOST, IF NOT ALL, PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF POTENTIAL
SHOWERS WILL BE DRAPED MORE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WITH
BETTER FORCING SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THAT SAID, MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DENOTE A SUBTLE REDEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN VERMONT. ENSEMBLE VARIATIONS DENOTE LESS THAN 40% OF
MEMBERS WITH RAIN OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY-SUNDAY. OUR FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN CONFLUENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MATERIALIZE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO VARY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SET UP A DRY CORRIDOR
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE A MOISTURE
AXIS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTH. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW MUCH DRY AIR THERE IS WILL DETERMINE IF MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER POTENTIAL ARE ABLE TO PENETRATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION, OR IF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR KEEPS OUR SHOWER CHANCES SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH. TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGH A BIT EAST, MORE CENTERED
OVER OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH BODES SOME BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN A DRIER START TO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, ZONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH SOME COLD HOLLOWS
HOVERING ABOUT THE UPPER 30S. A SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASONS, OUR
UPPER AIR PATTERN IN THE ENSEMBLES IS BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF
SOME CAD BY TUESDAY, AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME COOL TRAPPED AIR EAST OF THE GREENS BY MID
NEXT WEEK. SKY CONDITIONS FAVOR MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT, BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW CLOUDS WILL
GO. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO
PUSH, AS LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ITS SOUTH. AREAS
TO THE NORTH COULD SEE MORE CLEARING AND POTENTIALLY EARLY
MORNING FOG. HAVE GONE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, WITH CEILINGS
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/LOW VFR EXCEPT AT MSS, WHICH THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY PASSED. IFR LIKELY ANYWHERE WERE FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT FOR A TIME MID DAY THURSDAY, BUT
EXPECT THEY'LL LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MSS AS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS
BEYOND LOWERED CEILINGS. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/DANZIG
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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