523
FXUS61 KBTV 170715
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY,
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES. DRIER BREEZY CONDITIONS
RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
2. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY, ALSO
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES.
3. FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY, SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT HAVE SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS
AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH MANY
AREAS NOT MEASURING. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ONCE AGAIN OUR BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO FALL INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT THIS TIME
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN VERMONT CAN BE
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: OUR REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD TO
START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY TRENDING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
THIS PATTERN AND 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE
10TH PERCENTILE, TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY ONE
FOR SHELTERED AREAS THAT ALREADY SAW FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FARTHER WEST WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR AIR QUITE
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
GRADUALLY MODIFYING. SOMEWHAT INCREASING SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH
REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH,
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN MOISTURE, IS EVIDENT. AS SUCH,
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN DO COME FARTHER NORTH/EAST AT TIMES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING OUR REGION. FOR NOW,
THE CONSENSUS STRONGLY FAVORS RAINFREE CONDITIONS (POPS 15% OR
LESS) EVEN IF CLOUD COVER TENDS TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A SEASONABLY MOIST NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAS SUPPORTED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG, RESULTING IN LIFR AT
EFK AND SLK THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 12-13Z. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT MSS,
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z, BUT THINK THIS IS
UNLIKELY OR AT MOST VERY BRIEF IN NATURE. MORE LIKELY WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT MPV GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A WEAK FRONT AND
CLIMATOLOGY, ESPECIALLY AS A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 5000 FEET EXIT THE AIRSPACE.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AIRSPACE, WITH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER RUT THAN
ANY OTHER SITE, PARTICULARLY IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. RAIN
THERE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY AT MPV
IF RAIN TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED;
ELSEWHERE, ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
CATEGORICAL CHANGES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY 5 KNOTS OR
LESS, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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