265
FXUS61 KBTV 171153
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY,
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES. DRIER BREEZY CONDITIONS
RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
2. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY, ALSO
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES.
3. FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY, SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT HAVE SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS
AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH MANY
AREAS NOT MEASURING. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ONCE AGAIN OUR BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO FALL INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT THIS TIME
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN VERMONT CAN BE
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: OUR REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD TO
START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY TRENDING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
THIS PATTERN AND 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE
10TH PERCENTILE, TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY ONE
FOR SHELTERED AREAS THAT ALREADY SAW FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FARTHER WEST WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR AIR QUITE
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
GRADUALLY MODIFYING. SOMEWHAT INCREASING SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH
REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH,
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN MOISTURE, IS EVIDENT. AS SUCH,
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN DO COME FARTHER NORTH/EAST AT TIMES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING OUR REGION. FOR NOW,
THE CONSENSUS STRONGLY FAVORS RAINFREE CONDITIONS (POPS 15% OR
LESS) EVEN IF CLOUD COVER TENDS TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...LINGERING FOG AT MPV AND SLK WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE, WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THERE
WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BUT CEILINGS WILL TEND TO BE AT
LEAST 3000 FEET AGL. REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT SLK AND MPV WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, AND BRIEFLY AT RUT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE
FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF RAIN.
SHOWERS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE,
WITH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER RUT THAN ANY OTHER SITE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY AT MPV IF RAIN TRACKS
FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED; ELSEWHERE, ANY RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY CATEGORICAL
CHANGES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS,
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES IN PARTICULAR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. PATCHY BR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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