597
FXUS61 KBTV 171845
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT BASED ON SOME
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, BUT LITTLE CHANGES OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 244 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. A BIT OR RINSE AND REPEAT BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS.
2. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY, ALSO
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES.
3. FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 244 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STALLED BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE (BARELY FALLING BELOW 1020MB) WILL TRY TO SHIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS, BUT WITH LITTLE SUCCESS DUE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SO LITTLE, IF ANY, LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THE
LOW IS EXPECTED. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE JET
CONFIGURATION SHOULD AT LEAST PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE, COOL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THAT'LL LEAD INTO SOME FROST POTENTIAL. WITH THE STRONG HIGH NOSING
IN, IT LOOKS LIKE VERMONT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME GRADIENT FLOW, BUT
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE IT COLLAPSE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
AN UPPER LOBE OF VORTICITY TRACKING SOUTH, AND THAT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD PUT A HOLD ON FROST FORMATION,
BUT IF IT IS THIN OR HAS BREAKS, IT MAY STILL TAKE PLACE. SO THERE
IS SOME FROST NOTED IN OUR PUBLIC PRODUCTS, BUT KEEPING IT FAIRLY
LIMITED FOR NOW. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A
COOL DAY IN THE 60S AGAIN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED, BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN COME INTO PLAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF
NOTE AND A SWITCH TO SOUTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
FOR SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, IT WILL BEAR A STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO TODAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AMBLE EAST, BUT STRUGGLE TO GAIN ANY
LATITUDE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
WILL KEEP MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH. THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
LIKELY TO GET FARTHER NORTH WITH SURFACE PRESSURES AROUND 1012MB FOR
SUNDAY'S LOW PRESSURE. BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN AND STABLE
CONDITIONS, STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH, AND THERE ARE
NO LOCAL HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ONCE AGAIN OUR BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
FALL INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT THIS TIME AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT CAN BE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: OUR REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEASONABLY
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD TO START THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
TRENDING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN AND 925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE, TUESDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY ONE FOR SHELTERED AREAS THAT
ALREADY SAW FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED FARTHER WEST WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR AIR QUITE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GRADUALLY
MODIFYING. SOMEWHAT INCREASING SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
THE POSITION OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH, AND ASSOCIATED
INCREASES IN MOISTURE, IS EVIDENT. AS SUCH, SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
DO COME FARTHER NORTH/EAST AT TIMES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING OUR REGION. FOR NOW, THE CONSENSUS STRONGLY FAVORS RAINFREE
CONDITIONS (POPS 15% OR LESS) EVEN IF CLOUD COVER TENDS TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW INTERVALS OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/EFK
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
ANGLING TOWARD RUT TERMINAL IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET.
ALSO, AS MOISTURE INCREASES ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
(60%) AT MPV/EFK/SLK AND BTV, WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT PBG/MSS.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70%) OF
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AT RUT/MPV/SLK BY MIDNIGHT WITH
CHANCE PROBABILITY (25-35%) OF IFR CIGS OR VIS POSSIBLE AT
BTV/MSS AND EFK. DID NOTE VERY WARM SFC DWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S THIS AFTN, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, BUT SOUNDING DATA SHOWS INCREASING BL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH FAVORABLE MIXING UNDER
MODEST LOW LEVEL CAA, WHICH COULD OFFSET FOG DEVELOPMENT. A MIX
OF IFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE, GIVEN THE SETUP, ESPECIALLY AT
RUT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/HAYNES/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...TABER
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