311
FXUS61 KBTV 171910
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT BASED ON SOME
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, BUT LITTLE CHANGES OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. A BIT OR RINSE AND REPEAT BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS.
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IN CLIMO FAVORED AREAS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STALLED BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE (BARELY FALLING BELOW 1020MB) WILL TRY TO SHIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS, BUT WITH LITTLE SUCCESS DUE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SO LITTLE, IF ANY, LATITUDINAL GAIN OF THE
LOW IS EXPECTED. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE JET
CONFIGURATION SHOULD AT LEAST PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE, COOL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THAT'LL LEAD INTO SOME FROST POTENTIAL. WITH THE STRONG HIGH NOSING
IN, IT LOOKS LIKE VERMONT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME GRADIENT FLOW, BUT
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE IT COLLAPSE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
AN UPPER LOBE OF VORTICITY TRACKING SOUTH, AND THAT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD PUT A HOLD ON FROST FORMATION,
BUT IF IT IS THIN OR HAS BREAKS, IT MAY STILL TAKE PLACE. SO THERE
IS SOME FROST NOTED IN OUR PUBLIC PRODUCTS, BUT KEEPING IT FAIRLY
LIMITED FOR NOW. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A
COOL DAY IN THE 60S AGAIN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED, BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN COME INTO PLAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF
NOTE AND A SWITCH TO SOUTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
FOR SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, IT WILL BEAR A STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO TODAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AMBLE EAST, BUT STRUGGLE TO GAIN ANY
LATITUDE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
WILL KEEP MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH. THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
LIKELY TO GET FARTHER NORTH WITH SURFACE PRESSURES AROUND 1012MB FOR
SUNDAY'S LOW PRESSURE. BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN AND STABLE
CONDITIONS, STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH, AND THERE ARE
NO LOCAL HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH COUNTRY MID SEPTEMBER
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACRS OUR FA FOR DAYS
4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS LARGE 1035MB HIGH PRES
ANCHORED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH COOL-DRY NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
EXPECTED. THIS FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WL HELP SUPPRESS ANY
HEAT/HUMIDITY, ALONG WITH BEST INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH THRU
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN PW VALUES <0.50" AND DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE, EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN DAILY HIGHS/LOWS, ALONG WITH
LARGE DIFFERENCE BTWN VALLEYS/SUMMITS. DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS LOW/MID 30S COLDER VALLEYS TO
MID/UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN
TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK, A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WARMER AIR DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
THERE STILL IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF HIGH PRES BREAKING
DOWN AND POTENTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE BY LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW INTERVALS OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/EFK
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
ANGLING TOWARD RUT TERMINAL IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET.
ALSO, AS MOISTURE INCREASES ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
(60%) AT MPV/EFK/SLK AND BTV, WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT PBG/MSS.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70%) OF
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AT RUT/MPV/SLK BY MIDNIGHT WITH
CHANCE PROBABILITY (25-35%) OF IFR CIGS OR VIS POSSIBLE AT
BTV/MSS AND EFK. DID NOTE VERY WARM SFC DWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S THIS AFTN, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, BUT SOUNDING DATA SHOWS INCREASING BL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS WITH FAVORABLE MIXING UNDER
MODEST LOW LEVEL CAA, WHICH COULD OFFSET FOG DEVELOPMENT. A MIX
OF IFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE, GIVEN THE SETUP, ESPECIALLY AT
RUT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/TABER
AVIATION...TABER
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