584
FXUS61 KBTV 191133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 731 AM EDT SATURDAY...
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
START WARMING WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 223 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
2. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS MID TO LATE WEEK, THOUGH WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 223 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY MORNING FROST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND ESSEX COUNTY, VERMONT REMAINS ON TRACK WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
ARE MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE, UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION CONCURRENT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE RIDGE AXIS KICKS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR ANTICIPATED
RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS
STEADIER RAIN, AND GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, A CLUSTER OF MODELS HAS MORE UNIFORM RAIN AREAWIDE/FARTHER
NORTH, POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER 850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHILE A CLOSED LOW TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AS
OPPOSED TO AN OPEN WAVE.
IN ANY EVENT, INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND STATISTICAL LIKELIHOOD
OF STEADY RAIN DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS HAS LED TO
LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL. IN FACT,
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE NEAR OR BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE IN THE CLIMATOLOGY AND AT LEAST FOR BURLINGTON, IT
COULD BE THE COOLEST DAYTIME HIGH FOR THE DATE SINCE AT LEAST
1990. WE'LL HAVE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SO
UPON SATURATION TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO STEADY OR EVEN FALL
DURING THE DAY AS RAIN SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
TIMING OF RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ONSET DURING THE
MORNING, MOSTLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 10 AM AND BY NOON
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. A LATER ONSET TIMING WOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES. DURATION OF RAIN FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION
LOOKS LARGELY 6 TO 12 HOURS, SO FOR MOST PLACES MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS LOOK WET. THE INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL VARY FROM
LIGHT TO MODERATE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES COULD BE
NEAR 0.3"/HOUR, BUT MOSTLY IN THE 0.02" TO 0.08"/HOUR RATE. AS
SUCH, TOTAL RAINFALL LARGELY LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHERE IN THE 0.3" TO
0.6" RANGE, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FAVORED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.
CONDITIONS LOOK MODERATELY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DROPPING INTO
THE 30S. AS SUCH, ANYONE OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONSIDER COOL
WEATHER RAIN GEAR. WIND FIELDS WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG, GIVEN MODEST
GRADIENT FLOW, WITH 25 TO 30 MPH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ANTICIPATED. RAIN STABILIZED AIR WILL LIMIT MIXING, ALTHOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CAN
BE EXPECTED DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING TO THE EAST,
WE'LL GRADUALLY GET BACK UNDER A CANADIAN AIR MASS AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AMIDST A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RELATIVELY WEAK ADVECTION AND MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY DAY SHALLOW CLOUDS,
MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LARGE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY. HOWEVER,
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL LIMIT THE MODERATION,
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION MAKE IT THIS FAR
NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A REX BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S IN
SPITE OF SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY
OVERNIGHTS, AND PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS/EASTERN VT VALLEYS EACH MORNING. THINGS BECOME LESS
CERTAIN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HOW QUICKLY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN, AND IF THE MID
ATLANTIC TROUGHINESS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CAN LIFT NORTH
INTO OUR REGION. THE 19/00Z GFS IN PARTICULAR IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC,
LIFTING A BROAD AREA OF RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRUNDLES VERY SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO NY/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WOULD NOT ONLY KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN, IT WOULD ALSO MAKE
FOR FAIRLY CHILLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY IN THE 40S AND
50S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST EXTREME
SOLUTIONS AND IS GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS LIKEWISE KEEP THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS
BEYOND THE GFS. HAVE STAYED WITH THE NBM/WPC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS,
THEN A LOW DECK AROUND 4000 FT WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WELL, GENERALLY LESS THAN
8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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