485
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. DRIER AIR FINALLY WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SHARPLY WARMING THROUGH THURSDAY.
2. SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH
LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
3. COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT THREAT OF
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SATELLITE THIS MORNING DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH INTERMITTENT MIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE GOES-
19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BLOCKED FLOW AND A SHARP INVERSION WILL
LIKELY KEEP THESE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN MIST/FOG LINGERING THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH FROUDE NUMBERS STILL WELL BELOW 0.25. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING FINALLY
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE WITH FROUDE NUMBER IMPROVING. LOW CLOUDS
LOOK TO BREAK BY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ARRIVE JUST IN TIME
TO KEEP US PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THEREAFTER. SOME SUNSHINE MAY TRY
TO WORK ITS WAY IN IN SOME OF THE WIDER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL, TODAY
WILL BE A QUIET, TRANQUIL DAY.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES NORTH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH MORE MILDER AIR
MASS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY, AND INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. COMPLICATING OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL THURSDAY, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF ADVECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY, DESCRIBED IN KEY
MESSAGE 2. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BY THE LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS SHOWER CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC TROPICAL AIR. ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY WILL TURN MORE AMPLIFIED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY,
ADVECTING WARM AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE REGION. DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL SPUR SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES
TO HOLD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BORDER IN ONTARIO UNTIL CLOSER TO
FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, BY FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH ELEVATED PWS UP TO 1.5-1.8"; MORE
REMINISCENT OF A SUMMER-TIME AIRMASS. THANKFULLY, THIS FRONT WILL BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE, AIDED BY A 50-60KT LLJ, AND GOOD STRETCHING
BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH, AND A BUILDING HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT, ENSEMBLES DEPICT ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE SPINE OF THE GREENS IN
VERMONT. ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" OF RAIN EXISTS IN THE
GEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES, AND IS FOCUSED ONLY OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
AS OUR FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY, OUR
GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALSO TIGHTEN WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.
SOUNDINGS DEPICT GUSTY CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WINDS
WITH REASONABLE WINDS IN THE 25-30+ MPH RANGE. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK, SLIGHTLY STRONGER CHANNELED FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IN LOCATIONS LIKE MALONE, NY,
APPROACHING 35 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY, SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK MARGINALLY STRONG
IN THIS AREA BUT GUSTS WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 40 MPH THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLIMO FAVORED
VALLEY FOG AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY, COMPLICATING THE FOG FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 40 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE 30S
FOR THE ADKS AND PORTIONS OF THE NEK OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE AUGUST, PRETTY MUCH BEING
DICTATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH VARYING AMPLITUDES AND
STRENGTHS OF DISTURBANCES.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MUCH COOLER AIR ON ITS HEELS. BY TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S-30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR, MAINLY DUE TO 1000-2500 FT AGL CEILINGS, BUT THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE OF DRIZZLE NEAR KEFK WITH 3SM VISIBILITY AND RUNNING UP
TO THE TAF DUE TIME, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME 600-900 FT DECKS
STARTING TO COME UP. CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE, BUT ANY CLEARING COULD EASILY GIVE WAY TO FOG FORMATION.
FOR THE MOST PART PROBABILITIES OF IFR BASED OF NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOSTLY 10-30% CHANCES BEFORE 04Z, AND THEN RAMPING UP
INTO THE 60-80% CHANCE REALM FROM 06Z-13Z. SO MOST TERMINALS
HAVE EITHER GRADUALLY FALLING CEILINGS TOWARDS 700-1200 FT AGL
AND SOME MIXTURE OF 1-5SM VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY, AND
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...SLW/DANZIG
AVIATION...HAYNES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page