866
FXUS61 KBTV 302322
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. INCREASINGLY MILD, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SHARPLY DRIER AND
SUNNY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
2. TURNING COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: IT HAS BEEN HARD TO SCOUR OUT OUR LOW CLOUD DECK IN
VERMONT, AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, TODAY. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE HAS GRADUALLY BROKEN OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RESPONDING IN KIND, REACHING THE 70S AS OF THIS WRITING IN SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE WITH
OUR NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE
HELPS KEEP US WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO OCTOBER. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, THERE ARE LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SO A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF OUR AIR MASS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR UNUSUALLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY;
THE EFI HIGHLIGHTS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT ESPECIALLY, WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S WOULD BE
NEAR/ABOVE DAILY RECORDS. (NOTE SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE RECORDS UNLIKELY.)
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON CHANCES OF RAIN FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS OUT OF CONTINUITY. BY AND
LARGE, ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. FROM
THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, SHOWERS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD SUCH THAT A GOOD SOAKING RAIN LOOKS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM ST. LAWRENCE TO CLINTON COUNTIES, AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN VERMONT. FRIDAY MORNING MUCH
OF THE STEADY, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN, IS FAVORED TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AS THE SYSTEM'S PRIMARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE
SHORTER DURATION OF RAIN, AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWAT (REFS MEAN AT
ABOUT 1.8" IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE) DWINDLING AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD, LEADS TO DECREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY.
MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 1" ARE MOST LIKELY IN POCKETS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK NEAR US ROUTE 11/WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, AND NORTHWESTERN VERMONT DUE TO COMBINATION OF THE
ORIENTATION OF THE STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND UPSLOPE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
NOTICEABLE, ESPECIALLY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES, THE PEAK OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET (ABOUT 35-40 KNOTS IN THE 850-925 MILLIBAR LAYER) WILL
BE CONCURRENT WITH THE RAIN AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS SUCH, ANY IMPACTS LOOK MODEST AND MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND
RECREATION AND AVIATION INTERESTS WITH STRONG STABILITY PRESENT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT IN HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND IT MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. GIVEN THE
PIECEMEAL NATURE OF THIS FRONT, UNSURPRISINGLY THERE IS LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE BY THIS TIME SO DESPITE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR,
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND NO THUNDERSTORM RISK IS
EVIDENT. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS, THEN
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL HAVE TUMBLED FROM THE 60S INTO THE
40S AND SKIES ARE VERY LIKELY TO BECOME CLEAR GIVEN THE DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR
IDEAL LEAF PEEPING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND OUT
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US A DRY
FINISH TO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH, BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COLDER AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR MID WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30F.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA ARE EXPECTED AS A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. GRADUALLY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS IN EASTERN VT, INCLUDING
KMPV. PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM ARE SPORTING VALUES OF ABOUT
40-60 PERCENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, AND UTILIZED A TEMPO FOR 2SM
THERE FOR NOW. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN SOME SPOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS 7 TO 13 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 16 TO 22 KNOTS. AS WINDS START SUBSIDING
AROUND 20-21Z, LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER KMSS AND KSLK,
WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY START REACHING AREAS WEST OF THE
GREENS BY ABOUT 20-22Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/HASTINGS
AVIATION...HAYNES
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