275
FXUS61 KBTV 031854
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
254 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...
1. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES, AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
2. COLD AIR LINGERING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TREND SEASONABLY
MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AREAS
OF FROST EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS POINTING TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. BY SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY PROMOTING
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
A FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL MAINLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
BORDER. LESS THAN 0.25" IS EXPECTED WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
0.33" OVER UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN GREENS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THESE BREEZES WILL
LINGER AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FREEZING LOWS ARE PROBABLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAIN IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 TIMEFRAME
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WHERE
A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK
BE A GARDEN KILLER WHERE VEGETATION REMAINS ALIVE, WITH EXCEPTIONS
POTENTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, PARTICULARLY IN THE
WIDE VALLEY THAT IS PRONE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER INITIALLY FALLING OFF AFTER SUNSET, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IN CONTRAST,
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE VULNERABLE TO COLDER CONDITIONS AND FROST; THE LATEST
PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 15-30%. MEANWHILE,
THROUGHOUT THE ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT, THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE ABOUT 40-90%. WHERE
WINDS REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES COULD FALL UP TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AND THE LOWEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR.
CONSENSUS IN THE LONGER RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) SHOWS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY FINALLY
DEPARTING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO HOLDS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER OUR REGION BUT LEAVES RAIN CHANCES HIGHER TO OUR NORTH, AND
LIKEWISE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROBABLY
PASS BY TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
TYPICAL INCREASING SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE RANGE EACH DAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE AIR MASS
CHANGE WITH ANY FRONT. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR REGARDLESS OF VARIABILITY. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND THE DETAILS WILL BECOME SHARPER WITH
REGARDS TO THESE FLUCTUATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...ASIDE FROM EARLY MORNING FOG AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR HAS SCOURED OUT MOISTURE TODAY; SOME SCATTERED
SHALLOW CLOUDS PRESENT NEAR VERMONT TERMINALS EARLIER HAVE QUICKLY
TRENDED TOWARDS SKC. THE ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATED TO RADIATION FOG. PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
RESULT AFTER ABOUT 06Z AT SLK, MPV, AND EFK. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, IT WILL TAKE MORE TIME
FOR FOG TO FORM BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO DROP WELL BELOW
CROSSOVER VALUES. HAVE NOTED AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AND COULD DISRUPT FOG AT MPV AND HAVE ENDED FOG A BIT
EARLIER THERE COMPARED TO EFK. FOLLOWING 12Z, INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL OCCUR, LEADING TO WINDS AT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TERMINALS
GUSTING NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 20 KNOTS, WHILE EFK AND MPV SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS ALSO REACH 10-12 KNOTS WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS
AT SLK AND MSS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD
DISCUSSION...BOYD/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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