864
FXUS61 KBTV 041459
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 1059 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 223 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES, AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
2. BECOMING SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 223 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY WILL BE A SEASONABLE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST
AREAS AT LEAST REACHING 60 TO THE MID 60S. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF SOME BUILDING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING. IT WILL TRY TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER,
THERE'S VERY LITTLE TO WORK WITH, AND SO PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER
NORTH OF ROUTE 11 IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY COULD OCCUR.
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST BEYOND MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE STRONG
DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WILL BE PRESENT, BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE
PARAMETERS. A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD TAKE PLACE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO STILL ALLOW SOME
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE RAIN HAS EXITED, SO
THERE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE, CHANCE FOR A FEW
FLAKES OVER OUR NORTHERN SUMMITS.
THE AIR MASS COMING IN FOR MONDAY IS QUITE CHILLY. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 50S, EXCEPT
IN THE UPPER VALLEY, WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE AUTUMN.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WITH SOME UPPER 30S LINGERING NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WINDS WILL
KEEP BLOWING OVER MOST AREAS, AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG OR FROST.
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL START PULLING AWAY TUESDAY, BUT IT
WILL BE A CHILLY DAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND STEADY WINDS
REMAINING. HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROLL IN,
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN AND RADIATIVE COOLING TO TAKE
OVER. STILL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STAYED WITH UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S, AND DID NUDGE THINGS A COUPLE DEGREES TOWARDS SOME
COLDER SOLUTIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. OVER THE COURSE OF THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEAK, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
NONE OF THEM ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT MAY OFFER SOME REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COOL AIR AND LIGHT RAIN. SO RATHER SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME BY NEXT WEEKEND,
A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...FOG LINGERS ACROSS VERMONT EAST OF THE
GREENS, A STRIP OF LAKE CLOUDS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN NEAR KPBG, AND SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THICKNESS OF THE FOG OVER KMPV, SET IT TO
GO FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT. GUIDANCE
DID NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS,
AND SO IT IS HARD TO KNOW HOW LONG IT WILL LAST, BUT AFTER 14Z,
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 14 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
18 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KPBG AND KBTV. AFTER
22Z, WINDS WILL SLACKEN BRIEFLY, BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE AT KPBG
AND KBTV AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITY OR
CEILINGS, MAINLY IN THE 05Z-14Z MONDAY TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY CHANNELED FLOW THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF UP TO 25 KNOTS, AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
RELAXING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SEICHE
EFFECT ON THE BROAD LAKE, AS WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD ON THE BROAD AND
NORTHERN WATERS, PEAKING OVERNIGHT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
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