282
FXUS61 KBTV 041843
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. IT WILL BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING, GUSTY WEST WINDS, AND CHILLIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
2. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL MIDWEEK.
3. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: THROUGH TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WHICH HAS HELPED
PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD WEATHER TODAY IS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH, TIED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY,
CANADA. THE TROUGH IS VERY WELL DEFINED, WITH A RIBBON OF GLACIATED
CLOUD TOPS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERNMOST GREAT LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED
ONLY A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN UPSTREAM AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR. WOULD EXPECT THIS
TYPE OF RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT REACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DWINDLING FURTHER AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT, THEN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FROM THE WEST, A VIGOROUS PIECE OF SPIN ALOFT WILL HELP
INCREASE LIFT AND FORCE SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM. THESE SHOWERS WILL
ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST,
AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY
FALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT BETWEEN ABOUT 6 AND 9 AM. FOLLOWING THESE SHOWERS,
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH STEEPENING NEAR
SURFACE LAPSE RATES.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS REACHING THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND
OF MOST MOUNTAIN PEAKS ACROSS CLINTON AND ESSEX COUNTIES IN NEW YORK
AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT, WITH OTHERWISE 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WITH EFFICIENT MIXING IN A STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT WHEN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER COULD TAP INTO >40 KNOT WINDS
NEAR SUMMIT LAYER, MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR IMPACTS AS LEAVES FALL
IN LARGE NUMBERS. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE
DAMAGE OR WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MILLIBARS, A PROXY FOR OUR HIGHEST SUMMIT
TEMPERATURES, WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY TOMORROW EVENING AS
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW. WOULD THINK SOME RIME ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SET UP BUT IT CLOUD ICE AND THEREFORE SNOW
IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD TEMPERATURES AND
SATURATION. CONTINUED BREEZES TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
FROST CONDITIONS AND LIMIT COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT LEAD
TO A BITING COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR; WIND CHILLS WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DUE TO A REINTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT WRAPS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS OUT, TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
BLUSTERY WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES. WHILE WINDS AGAIN WILL
UNLIKELY BE HAZARDOUS, THERE ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS AT THIS TIME
RANGE AS TO HOW STRONG THE GUST POTENTIAL IS. THE CONSENSUS OFFERS A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AND PEAK MAGNITUDE AT LEAST 5
MPH LIGHTER THAN ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IT IS A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD AND FASTER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT TROUGH, WHICH INTRODUCES RETURN
FLOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL, IT LOOKS LIKE FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
PLUMMET AFTER DARK TUESDAY AND THEN STABILIZE OR RISE BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE, IN MUCH OF VERMONT THE SURFACE SHOULD
DECOUPLE FROM THE MILDER AIR ALOFT, AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST
SUCH THAT LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. AS SUCH, WHILE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS INDICATED, WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE
ONLY REMAINS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE IT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY TO SEE FROST CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE ANOTHER LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WITH TRENDS TOWARDS A DEEPER LOW PASSING CLOSER TO OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR REGION WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR. ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN, AND MAINLY TOWARDS THE EVENING AND
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, ARE BEING
OFFERED. THESE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET, ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOTED THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE ABOUT A SIX HOUR
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS THAN THE GEFS; TIMING OF SHOWERS ARE
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. MOST LIKELY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EARLY
WEEK HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SEVERAL NORTH STREAM SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT ACROSS
THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ALTHOUGH NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE
BORDER, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR SO. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATORS
WILL BE THE BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
LATER IN THE NIGHT. BY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY, REMAINING QUITE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME POCKETS OF
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY CHANNELED FLOW THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF UP TO 25 KNOTS, AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
RELAXING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SEICHE
EFFECT ON THE BROAD LAKE, AS WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD ON THE BROAD AND
NORTHERN WATERS, PEAKING OVERNIGHT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KREMER
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
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