286
FXUS61 KBTV 050639
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
239 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 236 AM EDT MONDAY...
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY COLD
BOUNDARY PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 236 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MID AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING.
2. FROST POTENTIAL REMAINS ON TRACK TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
3. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 236 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
AREA WITH A WELL-DEFINED CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS ON RADAR STRETCHING
FROM CHAZY, NY TO WANAKENA, NY AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES VERMONT THIS MORNING THOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. A GAP IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW BEFORE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES RETURN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE DENOTED AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER CHANCES. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS LAKE HURON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHALLOW AREA OF 100-200J/KG OF CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY
BOUNDARY, ALBEIT STILL WELL BELOW THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. WE DID SEE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT BOUNDARY AS IT
ENTERED OUR REGION FROM EASTERN ONTARIO, AND THE SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
HURON DID ALSO HAVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. WITH THIS, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OCCURRING IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT DO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ANY SHOWERS TODAY,
REGARDLESS OF THUNDER, WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
LIKELY BLANKET THE AREA TODAY WITH STRONG CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MIXING PROFILES EXTENDING POTENTIAL
TO 12,000 FT AGL. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FLOW AROUND 40 KTS WITH
BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 20 KNOTS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VALLEY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE WIDER VALLEYS OF
THE AREA, INCLUDING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY; SEE MARINE SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS, AREAS ALONG US-11 IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK, AND LOCATIONS ON THE EAST DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AS EFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
TAKES PLACE. MINOR IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH TREES STILL LEAFED
OUT, THOUGH WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACTS WARRANTING A
WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONDITIONS WILL TURN COLD BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT TODAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT SEASONABLY COLD
CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRYING AND SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR THE WIDER
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AND STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH SOME POCKET UPPER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS
OUR UPPER LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD
MITIGATE FROST FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH INNATELY CHILLY COLD
ADVECTION WILL BRING MANY LOCATIONS TO NEAR FREEZING, STIFLING ANY
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS REMAINING AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. MAIN IMPACTS TUESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A DEWPOINT BOMB. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION, COUPLED
WITH A STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 925-700MB AND GOOD MIXING PROFILES IN
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FOR
DEWPOINTS TO FALL RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIP BALM HANDY.
WINDS WILL TREND CALMER TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT MORE
AREAWIDE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
MANY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND INCREASING SOUTH FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FROST POTENTIAL. AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, GUSTY CHANNELED FLOW WILL RETURN AS OUR NEXT WEATHER
PATTERN ARRIVES FOR THE LATER WEEK. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A GENERALLY NICE
DAY EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LOWS SETS UP FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AMBLES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PRODUCE NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY,
AND THEN A WARM NIGHT IN THE 40S.
A BROAD, AND RELATIVELY WEAK, UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OVER JAMES BAY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MATURE CYCLONE FESTERING ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE. IT WON'T SEND ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS OUR WAY, BUT
PERIODIC TROUGHS ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND MAINTAIN COOL TO SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FEATURE DEPARTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ONCE IT
DOES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS AND A SOLID 1030MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
THAT SHOULD DRY US OUT AND START WARMING UP.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NEW YORK, PRODUCING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, DOWN TO 2SM
AT KMSS AT 04Z, WITHIN CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS. AS THE FEATURE
APPROACHES VERMONT, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY, AND THEN EXIT
EAST AROUND 12-13Z. A WEST WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND IT,
ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PERIOD OF WINDS AND SOME PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS. BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN 12-17 KNOTS
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-27 KNOTS, MAINLY 15Z-23Z. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FEATURE, AND THERE ARE PROB30S NOTED FOR THAT POTENTIAL. WINDS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 236 AM EDT MONDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 25
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS, LEADING TO WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL SOMEWHAT WEAKEN AFTER DAY BREAK AS
THE WIND DIRECTION TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
LOWER TO 20 TO 25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, A BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA CONCURRENTLY, LEADING TO RENEWED GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE FUNNELING MAY OCCUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET NEAR THE MOUTH SHELBURNE BAY AND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BROAD WATERS TOWARDS BURLINGTON BAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A PERIOD BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE LATE MORNING WHERE WINDS MAY BE
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO BE
STRONG BY THE AFTERNOON, THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/DANZIG
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...DANZIG
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