034
FXUS61 KBTV 061133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 226 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 226 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING WITH SOME CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 226 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY WILL BE A COOL DAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT NOT SO
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. MAX WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 20-25 MPH, AND HIGHER SUMMITS WILL LIKELY GUST AROUND 35-50
MPH MUCH OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE DRY, AND DESPITE THE COOL
CONDITIONS, WE SHOULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL DOWN TOWARDS
35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ISN'T QUITE ENOUGH TO PUSH US
TOWARDS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT IT IS A BIT CLOSE AND A SIGN OF
THE CHANGING SEASONS. THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL MEAN THAT
ONCE WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIATES. IT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID
30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REMAINS IN THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WITH THE MEDIAN FIRST FREEZE AROUND OCTOBER
11TH. GRAND ISLE IS LESS LIKELY TO OBSERVE FROST, BUT JUST IN CASE,
THREW THE WHOLE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN TO A FROST ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 5-6AM, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL END THE FROST POTENTIAL.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE AT THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP, MATURE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP NEAR JAMES BAY. ITS
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS EAST MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WIDE
MOISTURE SPREAD. GIVEN TODAY'S EXPECTED DRYNESS, I'M INCLINED TO
THINK IT WILL NOT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING (PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
VIRGA). IN DEFERENCE TO SOME WETTER SOLUTIONS, THERE ARE SOME 10-30
POPS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES. MODERATION
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HOLDOUTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
DURING THE EVENING, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ALONG THE ROUTE 11 CORRIDOR IN FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MIDDAY THURSDAY. IT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO TODAY. A DYNAMIC SET UP WITH
MODEST 150-300 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AREN'T QUITE AS
COOL, THERE COULD BE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY, AND
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COOL AIR WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE SYSTEM, PUSHING NIGHTTIME LOWS BACK INTO THE
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING WHILE WE REMAIN
UNDER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TROUGHING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC, A BRIEF
SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SUMMIT LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME, SO A BRIEF FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, BUT THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A CLASSIC FALL STRETCH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE TO START NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO 70 IN
THE VALLEYS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MVFR CEILINGS AT EFK AND SLK WILL LIFT
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE FOR MOST
PLACES. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT,
THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE/TERRAIN DRIVEN. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE LATER PART OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT LATER TONIGHT, BUT BTV AND PBG
SHOULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ028-035.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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