913
FXUS61 KBTV 210620
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
2. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 218 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO OUR
AREA OUT OF CANADA. LOTS OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE, AND WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. AFTER AFTERNOON RANGING HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S TODAY, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, WARMEST ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 40. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS. SURFACE HIGH WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TOMORROW AS A NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFF
THE EAST COAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA, BRINGING COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A CLASSIC STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OVER THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOST MORNINGS WILL BE FROSTY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR MOUNTAIN FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
DURING ITS PASSAGE, IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DRY.
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 60 MONDAY, BEFORE HIGHS DROP BACK
INTO THE 50S AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE ONE QUESTION WILL BE WHICH SITES (IF ANY) SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. BEST WINDOW WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z, THOUGH CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK OVERALL SUPER FAVORABLE GIVEN
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF FOG/MIST WILL
BE AT KMSS, AND LESS SO AT KSLK, WHERE SOME TEMPO GROUP FOR BR
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. THESE SITES ARE ALREADY
AT OR BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, DESPITE CALM
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WINDS INCREASE JUST OF THE DECK. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT MIXED, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
ANY PERSISTENT FOG TO DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
AVIATION...DUELL
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