218
FXUS61 KBTV 210650
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
2. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING
TEMPERATURE TREND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP DRY
LAYER OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE, WHILE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS LINGERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW AND HIGH PRES
INCREASES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY, FOR A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS. IN
ADDITION, THIS WL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 8-10C THIS AFTN, COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE SUPPORTS HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND ON ELEVATION AS A SHARP
LLVL THERMAL INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH POOR RH RECOVERIES POSSIBLE
ACRS THE MID-UPPER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THIS THERMAL BELT. LOWS WL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S WITH A SHARP HUMIDITY RANGE
FROM EXCELLENT RECOVERIES IN THE VALLEYS TO POOR ACRS THE RIDGES. AS
THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES ON THURS, DID NOTE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925MB TO 850MB MOISTURE, ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OF
20 TO 35 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR BTWN 00Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY, WHEN MIXING PROFILES ARE LESS FAVORABLE, BUT EXPECT
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ON RIDGES AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ONCE AGAIN WITH
DEVELOPING WINDS POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUMMIT
LVL ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS UPPER 30S TO LOWER
50S ACRS OUR REGION, DID UTILIZE THE MAX TEMP BY ELEVATION TOOL TO
HIGHLIGHT SHARPENING GRADIENT BTWN WARMER VALLEYS AND COOLER
SUMMITS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, NEAR CRITICALLY DRY HUMIDITIES
AND RECENT DRY SPELL RESULTING IN RECEPTIVE FINE FUELS, ESPECIALLY
LEAF LITTER. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT WE WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE UPCOMING
DAYS AHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF QUIET WEATHER. LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA, THOUGH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL. A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR MOUNTAIN FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT, DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE ONE QUESTION WILL BE WHICH SITES (IF ANY) SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. BEST WINDOW WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z, THOUGH CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK OVERALL SUPER FAVORABLE GIVEN
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF FOG/MIST WILL
BE AT KMSS, AND LESS SO AT KSLK, WHERE SOME TEMPO GROUP FOR BR
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. THESE SITES ARE ALREADY
AT OR BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, DESPITE CALM
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WINDS INCREASE JUST OF THE DECK. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT MIXED, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
ANY PERSISTENT FOG TO DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TABER
DISCUSSION...TABER/DUELL
AVIATION...DUELL
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