928
FXUS61 KBTV 212320
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
2. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST.
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA, WILL HAVE INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS
OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AS A SHARP LOW
LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH POOR RH RECOVERIES ACROSS
THE MID-UPPER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THIS THERMAL BELT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S WITH A SHARP HUMIDITY
RANGE FROM EXCELLENT RECOVERIES IN THE VALLEYS TO POOR ACRS THE
RIDGES. AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES ON THURS, DID NOTE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN 925MB TO 850MB MOISTURE, ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR
BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY, WHEN MIXING PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE, BUT EXPECT LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ON RIDGES AND LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. ONCE AGAIN WITH DEVELOPING WINDS POOR RH RECOVERIES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUMMIT LEVEL ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S ACRS OUR REGION. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, NEAR CRITICALLY DRY HUMIDITIES
AND RECENT DRY SPELL RESULTING IN RECEPTIVE FINE FUELS,
ESPECIALLY LEAF LITTER. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN
THE UPCOMING DAYS AHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE CLASSIC STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST A BIT FOR SUNDAY, AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST PLACES. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, AND WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR MOUNTAIN FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
DURING ITS PASSAGE, IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DRY. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 40S FOR
PLACES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME DAYS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AGAIN,
SOME BRIEF FOG IS NOTED AT KMSS AND KMPV IN A TEMPO FROM
10Z-12Z, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD SEEMS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT
AS WE CONTINUE TO WIDEN THE GAP FROM NOW AND RECENT RAIN.
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME VARIABLE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. IT ARRIVES AROUND 15Z-17Z WITH A
CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND 2500-6000 FT AGL, THEN WINDS INCREASING TO
6-11 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 19 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...HAYNES
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