774
FXUS61 KBTV 221135
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 209 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 209 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 209 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT ON SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
BE SEEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND GENERALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW HOURS OF 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING
AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE, A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: OUR CONTINUED DRY SPELL DOES NOT LOOK TO LET UP EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT PUSHING THE MID 60S. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND WHILE A
BRIEF SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE POSSIBLE, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. GIVEN HOW DOMINATING OUR DRY OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL BE BY MONDAY, A STRONG FRONT WILL BE NEEDED TO DISLODGE OUR DRY
AIR AND OVERCOME THE SURFACE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT BE THAT CASE, AND MOST PRECIPITATION, SHOULD ANY OCCUR,
LIKELY WILL BE VIRGA. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLER NORTH
WINDS LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. WHILE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME DAYS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO
LIGHT TO NOTE ANY SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...DESPITE A PROLONGED DETACHMENT FROM RAIN, AND
ANTICIPATED PERSISTENCE FORECASTING, AREA OF LOCALIZED FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AROUND MPV/SLK THIS MORNING, WITH VCFG AT RUT. ANY
LINGERING IFR VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO VFR BY
13Z. BEYOND 13Z, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15-17Z AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN PREVAILING FROM THE
NORTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LOWER
SCATTERED CIGS TOWARDS 3000-4000FT AGL. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS ACROSS VERMONT, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS.
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, ANY GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. WINDS
WEAKEN AFTER 00Z TOWARDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. ANOTHER CLEAR AND
CALM NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH SOME HINTS AT
REPEAT FOG AT MSS/SLK/MPV, THOUGH IT WILL BE TIED TO THE LATER
PORTION OF TONIGHT, WITH SOME SUBTLE FLOW ALOFT IN THE BEGINNING
PORTION OF THE NIGHT LIMITING EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, HAVE LEFT OUT ANY FOG OR TERMINAL
REDUCTIONS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY/DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
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