499
FXUS61 KBTV 222320
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. LOCALIZED GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF,
THEN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
AGREEABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ASIDE FROM A RIBBON OF CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING, A RETURN TO
SUNNY DAYS IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO
WINDS THIS EVENING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND THEN POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE REGION.
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
DETACHED FROM A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE BEHIND IT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLOUD COVER IS TIED TO A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 925-850 MILLIBAR LAYER, WITH THE AIR MASS
ABOVE THAT LAYER VERY DRY. HENCE, NORTH OF THIS REGION THERE ARE
JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS AND WE CAN EXPECT SKIES IN OUR
REGION TO TREND CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY FAST PRESSURE RISES THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED WITH ACCELERATED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN. ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM
WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH SIMILAR GUSTS IN THE EASTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. NORTHERLY, RATHER THAN A MORE COMMON
NORTHWESTERLY, FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH A GENERAL
DECAY OF WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE LIGHTENING WIND WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE. AT PERENNIAL COOL SPOT SLK/ADIRONDACK
REGIONAL AIRPORT, A DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS POSSIBLE (14
DEGREES). ANY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. ALSO, AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE ALOFT, BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE RETURN
OF THE TYPICAL COLD SEASON SURFACE INVERSION WITH MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS RELATIVE MILD. GENERALLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS A BIT LESS
COLD THAN SATURDAY MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INTERFERE
WITH THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT AND CORRESPONDINGLY ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WHILE LOCALIZED LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, COOL
NORTHERLY ADVECTION DOESN'T FAVOR PARTICULARLY LOW SURFACE
HUMIDITY AT THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY REACHING THE UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS, THIS IS THE
DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH
REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD
MINIMIZE FIRE SPREAD, HOWEVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, BUT IT
WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FROM THIS FEATURE. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY STRETCH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRYNESS, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ANY FORE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY THINNING NOW THAT A
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE LAYER EXISTS
BETWEEN 4000-7000 FT AGL, AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE COMING 6-9
HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS FOR LOCATIONS
UNSHELTERED FROM WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT A FEW AREAS LIKE
KRUT AND KSLK SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. FLOW ALOFT IS SOMEWHAT FAST, AND THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED REGIONS THAT MEET LLWS CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS, BUT ARE NOT SHOWN EXPLICITLY FOR ANY TERMINALS. THIS
COULD ALSO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING, THOUGH A BRIEF REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY TOWARDS SUNRISE IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY STRONG NORTH FLOW. WINDS TODAY HAVE
GRADUALLY RAMPED UP, PARTICULARLY IN THE BROAD AND SOUTHERN
WATERS AS TYPICAL FOR THESE EVENTS. EXPECT THEY WILL MAINLY BE 20
TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, AND THEN 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY DAYBREAK. CORRESPONDING PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO
BE 2 TO 4 FEET, WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 FEET BRIEFLY NEAR
WILLSBORO POINT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, AND THEN RELAX INTO THE 1 TO 3
FEET RANGE OVERNIGHT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HAYNES
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
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