547
FXUS61 KBTV 230627
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
227 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 227 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 227 AM EDT FRIDAY...
1. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2. DRY COLD FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, IN THE 48-52 DEGREE RANGE, ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE LACK OF ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE OR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS BULLISH ON THE UPCOMING COLD
FRONT LATER ON MONDAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A PLETHORA OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH VIRTUALLY NO
PRECIPITATION. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE
SHOWING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT THE
TREND CONTINUES TO BE DRIER WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE CURRENT
PATTERN. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL BE SEEN AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ANOTHER 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER NOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED FOR FRIDAY WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THE
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE HARD TO DISPLACE SO WE WILL SEE
HOW THIS PANS OUT IN A WEEK FROM NOW.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND MUCH LIGHTER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE SEEN IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY
AVIATION...CLAY
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