594
FXUS61 KBTV 241038
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 212 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 212 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
2. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT DRY WEATHER
IS LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 212 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT AT SUNRISE BUT
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. A 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 7-12 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS
HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. THERE ARE AN INCREASING NUMBER OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS THAT ARE SHOWING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS IS STILL FAVORING A MOSTLY
DRY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SOME 20-30 POPS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AS A RESULT
BUT THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
ANY RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID 40S. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, THIS ONE EVEN
STRONGER THAN THE LAST, WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO MODERATE UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPS
CLICKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
NEXT WEEK BUT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KRUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
THEIR TYPICAL 110-140 DEGREE DRAINAGE WIND OF 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THESE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
3Z ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY
AVIATION...CLAY
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